【文章标题】：Great Scott
【文章标题】：了不起的斯科特
It’s Scott Bessent’s birthday today. He’s sixty four. Rather than doing the garden, though, digging the weeds, the US Treasury Secretary has been intervening in bond markets. In an effort to stem rising yields, Bessent
announced
that his department would ramp up purchases of longer-dated government securities. “We shall scrimp and save,”
sang
McCartney. Not so, Bessent.
今天是斯科特·贝森特的生日。他六十四岁了。不过，这位美国财政部长没有打理花园、拔除杂草，而是干预了债券市场。为了遏制不断上升的收益率，贝森特宣布，他的部门将加大购买较长期政府证券的力度。“我们要省吃俭用，”麦卡特尼唱道。贝森特可不这样。
As Treasury Secretary, Bessent
sees himself
as “the nation’s top bond salesman”. It’s a big job. In fiscal year 2025, his department
issued
a total of $30.2 trillion in marketable securities to investors in over 400 auctions. “The Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid market in the world,” he
touted
in November, “a testament to the efficacy of the Trump Administration’s economic policies.”
作为财政部长，贝森特将自己视为“美国头号债券推销员”。这是一项艰巨的工作。在2025财年，他的部门通过400多场拍卖向投资者发行了总计30.2万亿美元的可流通证券。“美国国债市场仍然是全球最深、流动性最强的市场，”他在11月吹嘘道，“这证明了特朗普政府经济政策的有效性。”
But by Bessent’s own yardstick, his performance has been slipping. “Treasury yields are a strong barometer for measuring success,” he
said
of his role. In the most recent auctions he has conducted, yields have lurched higher. A 25 billion sale of the 30-year Treasury bond resulted in an auction yield of 5.216%, the highest level since 2001. Investors showed up, submitting bids worth around 2.5 times the debt on offer, but they demanded a higher return to do so.
但按照贝森特自己的标准，他的表现一直在下滑。“国债收益率是衡量成功的重要晴雨表，”他谈到自己的角色时说。在他最近主持的拍卖中，收益率大幅攀升。8月12日，420亿美元的10年期国债拍卖将拍卖收益率推高至4.683%，为2007年以来的最高水平。次日，250亿美元的30年期国债拍卖的拍卖收益率达到5.216%，为2001年以来的最高水平。投资者确实到场了，提交的投标额约为发行债务的2.5倍，但他们要求更高的回报才肯这样做。
Higher auction yields | Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
更高的拍卖收益率 | 来源：彭博、杰富瑞
With outstanding debt of over 1.2 trillion on an annualised basis, the cost of interest on government debt now exceeds what the US spends on national defense – the first sustained occurrence of this in the post World War II era. Combined with entitlements, annualised net interest rose to 98.4% of government receipts in the 12 months to July, up from 96.2% in 12 months to June, and the highest level since the record 99.7% in the 12 months to June 2020 when the Fed was engaged in Covid-triggered monetisation.
未偿债务超过40万亿美元，利息成本不断攀升。按年化计算，政府债务利息成本已超过1.2万亿美元，现在超过了美国国防开支——这是二战后首次持续出现这种情况。加上福利支出，截至7月的12个月里，年化净利息占政府收入的比重升至98.4%，高于截至6月的12个月的96.2%，也是自2020年6月止12个月创下99.7%纪录以来的最高水平，当时美联储正在进行新冠疫情引发的货币化操作。
Seasoned risk managers
are worried
.
经验丰富的风险管理者感到担忧。
Stan Druckenmiller
: “The fiscal recklessness of the last decade has been like watching a horror movie unfold.”
斯坦·德鲁肯米勒：“过去十年的财政鲁莽就像在看一部恐怖片展开。”
Ray Dalio
: “Debt service is like plaque building up in the arteries… When you get to the point where we are, which is very close, that you have to borrow money to pay the debt, then that is the problem.”
雷·达里奥：“偿债就像动脉中形成的斑块……当你到了我们目前所处的阶段，也就是非常接近必须借钱来偿还债务的时候，那才是问题所在。”
Ken Griffin
: “If your fiscal house is not in order, the bond vigilantes can come out and extract their price.”
肯·格里芬：“如果你的财政状况不整顿好，债券义警就会出来索取代价。”
Jamie Dimon
: “The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it. And it will be okay, it’s just not the way to do it.”
杰米·戴蒙：“照现在这样发展下去，将会出现某种债券危机，然后我们将不得不应对它。最终会没事的，只是不该以这种方式。”
David Solomon
: “If we continue on the current course, and we don’t take the growth level up, there will be a reckoning on this.”
大卫·所罗门：“如果我们继续走当前的道路，并且不提高增长水平，就会在这方面遭到清算。”
Jeff Gundlach
: “The long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset. It’s not responding to lower interest rates… The reckoning is coming.”
杰夫·冈拉克：“长期国债并不是合法的避险资产。它没有对较低的利率做出反应……清算即将到来。”
Even everyday risk managers are concerned. In a
recent survey
of bond investors, registered voters and economics or finance graduates, respondents put the odds of a crisis within ten years at close to 50%. Among investors, simply being shown the current debt level and the Congressional Budget Office’s long-run projections raised their stated ten-year crisis probability by 14.9 percentage points.
即使是普通的风险管理者也感到担忧。在最近一项针对债券投资者、登记选民以及经济学或金融学毕业生的调查中，受访者认为十年内发生危机的概率接近50%。在投资者中，仅仅向他们展示当前债务水平和国会预算办公室的长期预测，就使他们所陈述的十年危机概率提高了14.9个百分点。
While a full-blown crisis may be some way off, casualties of higher rates are mounting. Back in 2023, the banking sector was first to experience the aftershock of rising rates when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. This month, United Wholesale Mortgage, the nation’s largest mortgage lender, was forced into a bailout as it, too, floundered on persistently higher long-term rates.
虽然全面危机可能还有一段距离，但更高利率造成的伤亡正在增加。早在2023年，硅谷银行倒闭时，银行业率先感受到了利率上升的余震。本月，美国最大的抵押贷款机构United Wholesale Mortgage被迫接受救助，因为它也在持续较高的长期利率下陷入困境。
To explore whether this is the start of a reckoning, and why Bessent felt compelled to intervene in markets, read on.
要探究这是否是清算的开始，以及贝森特为何感到有必要干预市场，请继续阅读。
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