【文章标题】：Hot European Summer
【欧洲火热盛夏】
【文章正文】：
Rested after a month on the beach, European portfolio managers returned to their offices this week to the unfamiliar comfort of a home market doing really rather well.
在海滩度过一个月假期后，欧洲投资组合经理们本周重返办公室，惊喜地发现本土市场表现异常强劲——这种舒适感久违了。
European equities have been on an impressive run, outperforming global peers over the past few months.
欧洲股市表现亮眼，过去几个月持续跑赢全球其他市场。
This is particularly true for larger names in continental Europe, where the Euro Stoxx 50 is outpacing the mighty S&P 500.
欧洲大陆的大型企业尤为突出，Euro Stoxx 50指数涨幅甚至超越了强大的标普500指数。
Indeed, since the start of 2025, Europe has performed strongly despite both a tariff shock and an energy supply crisis.
事实上，尽管面临关税冲击和能源供应危机，2025年初以来欧洲市场仍展现强劲韧性。
Since 2022, its banking sector – long seen as a value trap (I should know) – has outperformed US megacap technology stocks by no small margin.
自2022年起，长期被视为价值陷阱（我深有体会）的欧洲银行业，其表现已大幅超越美国科技巨头股票。
高盛策略师称欧洲为”隐秘的赢家”。他们列举了多个被市场表现打破的迷思：
迷思一：欧洲没有增长
Yet in the first six months, earnings per share grew by 14% over the same period last year, the strongest pace in three years.
但上半年每股收益同比增长14%，创三年最快增速。
Consensus now expects close to 18% EPS growth for the full year.
市场普遍预期全年每股收益增速将接近18%。
迷思二：欧洲盈利能力低下
It’s lower than in the US, but European companies’ return on equity has improved markedly in recent years as margins and buybacks have risen, not least due to the contribution from banks.
虽低于美国，但随着利润率提升和回购增加（银行业功不可没），欧洲企业股本回报率近年显著改善。
Free cash flow is strong too compared with the US, where datacenter spend is rapidly eroding cash flows.
相比数据中心支出快速侵蚀现金流的美国，欧洲自由现金流更为强劲。
迷思三：欧洲经济停滞
Perhaps. But only slightly over 40% of STOXX Europe revenues come from Europe; the rest is global.
或许如此。但STOXX欧洲指数成分股仅略超40%收入来自欧洲，其余均来自全球市场。
And in any event, the macro picture is improving. New orders indicators have pushed decisively higher across several large sectors such as banks, pharmaceuticals and industrial businesses.
且宏观经济正在改善，银行、制药和工业等多个领域的新订单指标显著攀升。
迷思四：欧洲估值低廉只因缺乏增长
It currently trades on a 12-month forward multiple of 14.5 times earnings and while it’s true Europe doesn’t have the same crop of high-growth companies as the US, even adjusted for those, Europe looks inexpensive.
当前欧洲股市12个月前瞻市盈率为14.5倍。尽管确实缺乏美国式高增长企业群，但即便调整后估值仍具吸引力。
迷思五：无人投资欧洲
Well now they are. European equities are seeing the best inflows in ten years excluding 2021 (and we are close to matching 2021) driven almost entirely by foreign investors.
如今资金正在涌入。欧洲股市正迎来十年来（除2021年外）最强劲资金流入（且接近2021年水平），几乎全由外资推动。
我们在2025年1月《欧洲配置时机已至？》中探讨过欧洲投资逻辑。此后市场表现优异。但散户始终缺席——美国家庭近50%财富配置于股票，欧洲却始终低迷。如今美国家庭股票资产已超过房产，欧洲股票配置仍徘徊在20%左右。美国超21%家庭直接持股，德意两国仅7%。这种差异也体现在交易活跃度上：Winterflood Securities数据显示，美国散户贡献约20%日均成交额，英国却不足5%。
差异根源：
- 政策激励：英国股票印花税抑制投资，瑞典2012年推出免税投资账户(ISK)，其22%家庭持股率为欧洲最高；
- 赌博立法：英国体育博彩分流投机需求，而美国预测市场自由化正改变这种平衡——Robinhood七月日均1.97亿笔事件交易（多为体育投注）vs 480万笔股票交易；
- 市场准入：欧洲禁止订单流支付，导致零佣金模式难推行，德国今年六月豁免期结束后，Trade Republic等券商被迫重组交易平台。
政策制定者正考虑多项措施吸引[…]
（注：原文结尾部分内容不完整，已保留关键数据和分析框架。若需补充完整译文，请提供剩余文本。）