Over Target
超出目标
“I accept chaos, I’m not sure whether it accepts me.”
– Bob Dylan
“我接受混乱，但不确定混乱是否接受我。”
– 鲍勃·迪伦
As the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, several of the republics that gained independence represented particularly fertile ground for Western oil supermajors. Partially freed from Moscow’s constraints, flush with world-beating energy resources, and in need of Western technological and financial support, the chaos presented the big energy powerhouses with a generational opportunity. (Some might even speculate that this outcome was the driving motivation behind the Cold War in the first place.)
随着苏联在20世纪90年代初解体，几个获得独立的加盟共和国成为西方超级石油巨头特别肥沃的土壤。它们部分摆脱了莫斯科的束缚，拥有举世无双的能源资源，又急需西方的技术和资金支持，这种混乱为大型能源巨头提供了千载难逢的机遇。（有些人甚至猜测，这一结果正是冷战最初的驱动动机。）
Among the most lucrative moves of the era was Chevron’s entry into Kazakhstan, where it secured a wildly valuable joint-venture agreement in the Tengiz-Korolev area in April of 1993. Later similar deals in Karachaganak and Kashagan with various Western participants doubled Kazakh oil production in the 1990s, setting the country on its way to the 2 million barrels per day (bpd) level achieved in 2025.
当时最有利可图的举措之一是雪佛龙进入哈萨克斯坦，于1993年4月在田吉兹-科罗廖夫地区达成了一份价值极高的合资协议。随后，在卡拉恰甘纳克和卡沙甘与多家西方参与者达成的类似交易，使哈萨克斯坦的石油产量在1990年代翻了一番，为该国产能在2025年达到每日200万桶的水平铺平了道路。
Kazakhstan’s independence from Russia, the legal successor state of the Soviet Union, was nonetheless incomplete—it remains a landlocked country. Construction on the principal oil pipeline providing takeaway capacity for Kazakh crude, operated by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), roughly coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ascension to power in 1999-2000. Through various expansions and other improvements, the CPC pipeline can currently carry roughly 1.4 million bpd of oil to the Russian border and on to the all-important Port of Novorossiysk on the coast of the Black Sea.
哈萨克斯坦虽然脱离了苏联的法定继承国俄罗斯，但独立并不完全——它仍然是一个内陆国家。为哈萨克斯坦原油提供外运能力的主要输油管道由里海管道财团（CPC）运营，其建设时间大致与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在1999-2000年上台执政相吻合。经过多次扩建和其他改进，CPC管道目前每天可向俄罗斯边境输送约140万桶石油，并继续输往黑海沿岸至关重要的新罗西斯克港。
Novorossiysk’s strategic relevance goes well beyond Kazakhstan and its Western partners, as the port is also a critical conduit for Russian energy and grain exports. This has made knocking the expansive facility offline a longstanding objective of Ukraine’s drone offensive. On November 29 of last year, events took an eyebrow-raising turn when critical elements of the CPC pipeline became a
direct target
:
新罗西斯克的战略意义远不止于哈萨克斯坦及其西方伙伴，因为该港口也是俄罗斯能源和谷物出口的关键通道。这使得让这个庞大设施瘫痪成为乌克兰无人机攻势的长期目标。去年11月29日，事态出现了令人瞠目结舌的转折，CPC管道的关键部分成为了一个
直接目标
：
“
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which handles most of Kazakhstan’s crude exports through Russia to the Black Sea, halted loading after one of its three moorings was damaged amid overnight Ukrainian attacks in the region.
‘As a result of a targeted terrorist attack by unmanned boats’ mooring 2 was ‘significantly damaged’ and ‘its further operation isn’t possible,’ the operator’s press office said in a statement.
All tankers were withdrawn from the CPC water area and shipments at the terminal will be carried out ‘in accordance with established rules once the threats from unmanned boats and drones have been eliminated,’ CPC said.
”
“
负责处理哈萨克斯坦大部分原油经俄罗斯出口至黑海的里海管道财团，在夜间乌克兰袭击该地区后，其三个系泊点之一受损，因而暂停了装货作业。
运营商新闻办公室在一份声明中表示，由于无人艇的‘针对性恐怖袭击’，2号系泊点‘严重受损’，‘无法继续运行’。
CPC表示，所有油轮均已撤出CPC水域，一旦无人艇和无人机的威胁消除，码头将‘按照既定规则’恢复装运。
”
All’s fair… | Ukrainska Pravda
一切皆公平…… | 乌克兰真理报
Representing the valuable US strategic interests involved, the State Department delivered a formal
démarche
to the Ukrainian ambassador, a highly unusual move considering how dependent Kyiv has been on Washington’s support for the duration of the war.
鉴于其中涉及的宝贵美国战略利益，美国国务院向乌克兰大使递交了一份正式
外交照会
，考虑到基辅在整个战争期间对华盛顿支持的高度依赖，这是一个极不寻常的举动。
It is through this historical context that we now speculate about recent military developments in the Black Sea. If our hunch is correct, the events of the past three weeks are a deeply troubling sign of what lies ahead for the Western powers as the war in Ukraine drags on to its bitter and inevitable end. It would also prove, yet again, that there is no such thing as a partial war, or one that can be reliably contained within predetermined confines once uncorked.
正是基于这一历史背景，我们现在对黑海近期军事动态进行推测。如果我们的直觉正确，过去三周的事件是一个令人深感不安的迹象，预示着随着乌克兰战争拖向痛苦而不可避免的结局，西方大国将面临什么。这也将再次证明，不存在所谓的局部战争，也不存在一旦开启就能可靠地限制在预定范围内的战争。
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