【文章标题】：Taiwan’s Modern Miracle
台湾的现代奇迹
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If people are mining for gold, it’s good to sell shovels. And if there’s a gold rush, it’s good if 30% of your nation’s economy is based on shovel manufacturing.
如果人们在淘金，卖铲子是个好生意。而如果出现淘金热，那么你国家30%的经济都基于铲子制造，也是一件好事。
Taiwanese GDP rose at a mammoth 23.6% annualized rate in the last quarter of 2025
, the fastest pace since the nation’s initial recovery from the 2008 recession, as ravenous demand for AI chips from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) buoys the nation’s economy. Growth in net exports has driven the vast majority of this boom, as data center builders in the US, China, and beyond try to get their hands on as much compute as possible.
台湾的GDP在2025年最后一个季度以惊人的23.6%年化率增长
，这是自2008年经济衰退后初步复苏以来最快的增速，原因是市场对台积电（TSMC）AI芯片的旺盛需求提振了台湾经济。净出口增长推动了这一繁荣的绝大部分，因为美国、中国及其他地区的数据中心建设者正试图获取尽可能多的算力。
Overall, the Taiwanese economy
has grown more than 12% over the last year, the fastest annual growth rate in nearly 50 years
, and GDP has increased almost 23% since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022. Industrial production and export orders have both hit record highs.
总体而言，台湾经济
在过去一年中增长了超过12%，这是近50年来最快的年度增速
，自2022年底ChatGPT发布以来，GDP已增长近23%。工业生产和出口订单均创下历史新高。
Gross exports exceed $63B per month, more than double the pre-COVID average
.
总出口额每月超过630亿美元，是疫情前平均水平的两倍多
。
Manufacturing now makes up nearly 40% of the nation’s economy, the highest since the late 1980s.
制造业现在占台湾经济的近40%，为1980年代末以来的最高水平。
The global rush for artificial intelligence has been a massive boon to the island nation, pushing its economy back to the growth rates that characterized its post-WWII economic miracle.
全球对人工智能的热潮对这个岛国来说是巨大的福音，推动其经济重回二战后的经济奇迹时期所特有的增长率。
Yet Taiwan’s still caught in a difficult position as the world’s largest producer of cutting-edge chips and the
primary manufacturer for AI chip designer NVIDIA
. On one side of it is China, Taiwan’s chief geopolitical foe,
the world’s second-largest consumer of computing power
, and a country that has repeatedly shaken traditional AI behemoths with models like Qwen and Deepseek. On the other side is the United States—dependent on Taiwan for chips, desperate to contain China’s AI ambitions, and paradoxically hoping to keep China dependent on American companies’ hardware and software. Taiwan’s exports both across the strait and across the Pacific have skyrocketed over the last year, rising more than 70% as the US and China invest hundreds of billions in developing smarter AI models.
然而，台湾作为全球最大的尖端芯片生产商和AI芯片设计公司英伟达（NVIDIA）的
主要制造商，仍处于困境之中。一边是中国，台湾的主要地缘政治对手，
全球第二大算力消费国
，并且是一个多次用Qwen和Deepseek等模型撼动传统AI巨头的国家。另一边是美国——依赖台湾的芯片，拼命想要遏制中国的人工智能雄心，却又矛盾地希望中国继续依赖美国公司的硬件和软件。过去一年，台湾跨越海峡和太平洋的出口额飙涨了70%以上，因为美国和中国正投资数千亿美元开发更智能的AI模型。
Taiwan
needs to maintain this “silicon shield”
of high-end chip manufacturing to counter geopolitical threats—as long as the PRC is dependent on Taiwan’s semiconductors, it is much less likely to attack the island, and as long as the US is dependent, it is much more likely to rush to Taiwan’s aid. For the same reason, both China and the US hope to pull semiconductor manufacturing away from the island to reduce their security dependence on Taiwan. China has undergone a
long period of steadily indigenizing semiconductor production
through national industrial policy, while the
US built heavily subsidized semiconductor fabs with the 2022 CHIPS Act
and is
now using tariff threats to push TSMC to move more production to America.
台湾
需要维持这种高端芯片制造的“硅盾”
以应对地缘政治威胁——只要中国大陆依赖台湾的半导体，它攻击台湾的可能性就会小得多；而只要美国依赖台湾，它就更有可能迅速援助台湾。出于同样的原因，中美两国都希望将半导体制造业从台湾移出，以减少对台湾的安全依赖。中国通过国家产业政策经历了
一个长期稳步实现半导体生产本土化的过程
，而美国则凭借2022年的《芯片法案》建立了
获得大量补贴的半导体晶圆厂
，并且
现在正利用关税威胁推动台积电将更多产能转移到美国。
Yet both countries also have to balance their desire to ease security dependencies with their massive current need for AI chips that only Taiwan can provide. Working to keep as many advanced chips as possible for itself and hoping to hamstring Chinese companies’ AI development, the US government has barred the export of NVIDIA’s flagship B300 chip or the
slightly pared-down B30A model that the company made specifically in hopes it would be more amenable to export control officials
. Instead, the US has greenlit the export of the less-powerful NVIDIA H200s to China,
provided 25% of revenues are kicked back to the US government
. China originally
banned imports of those H200s
, negotiating for better chips and hoping to push its domestic semiconductor industry, but is now rumored to have given
the green light for ByteDance, Alibaba, & Tencent to import up to 400k of them
to train their own AI models.
然而，这两个国家都必须在缓解安全依赖的愿望与当前对只有台湾才能提供的大量AI芯片的需求之间取得平衡。为了尽可能多地保留先进芯片并希望阻碍中国企业的AI发展，美国政府已禁止出口英伟达的旗舰芯片B300，或
该公司专门为更符合出口管制官员要求而略微缩减的B30A型号
。相反，美国批准了性能较弱的英伟达H200芯片对中国的出口，
条件是25%的收入要返还给美国政府
。中国最初
禁止进口这些H200芯片
，以期谈判获得更好的芯片并推动国内半导体产业，但据传现在已
为字节跳动、阿里巴巴和腾讯进口多达40万颗H200芯片开了绿灯
，用于训练它们自己的AI模型。
Taiwan’s economic boom is expected to continue into the near future, with the
national statistics agency projecting that GDP growth will approach 8% in 2026
, the third-highest growth rate this millennium. Export orders, a tight predictor for
future monthly exports, hit a record high of more than $76B, up 44% over the last year.
台湾的经济繁荣预计将在不久的将来持续下去，而
统计局预测2026年GDP增长率将接近8%
，这将是新千年以来的第三高增长率。出口订单是
未来月度出口的可靠预测指标，创下了超过760亿美元的历史新高，比去年增长了44%。
America has long been Taiwan’s top foreign customer, even surpassing China as a destination for
computer parts exports in 2022
, but it has rapidly expanded its lead and now dwarfs all other trading partners. Taiwanese computer and electronics export orders bound for the USA currently exceed $20B per month, more than double the next-closest major region.
美国长期以来一直是台湾最大的外国客户，甚至在2022年超越中国，成为
电脑零部件出口的目的地
，但美国迅速扩大了领先优势，如今已使所有其他贸易伙伴相形见绌。面向美国的台湾电脑和电子产品出口订单目前每月超过200亿美元，是紧随其后的主要地区的两倍多。
In fact, America now imports more directly from Taiwan than from China for the first time since 1992—the trade war has cut US direct trade with China, while the AI boom has caused a surge in spending on Taiwanese-made semiconductors. The US obviously imports many Chinese goods indirectly, sometimes transshipped through third countries, but much more frequently just as components of finished manufactured goods produced elsewhere. Yet the same can be said of Taiwanese chips, many of which are assembled into more complicated electronics in countries like Mexico before making their way to the US. The massive rise of Taiwanese-US trade is a genuine sea change in where America’s overseas supply-chain dependencies lie.
事实上，美国现在从台湾的直接进口首次超过中国，这是自1992年以来的第一次——贸易战削减了美国与中国的直接贸易，而AI热潮则导致了对台湾制造的半导体的支出激增。美国显然间接进口许多中国商品，有时通过第三国转运，但更常见的是作为其他地方生产的制成品的零部件。台湾芯片也是如此，其中许多在进入美国之前，在墨西哥等国家被组装成更复杂的电子产品。台美贸易的大幅增长标志着美国海外供应链依赖格局的真正巨变。
Yet there are still significant economic risks amidst Taiwan’s modern miracle. The massive success of TSMC reinforces the island’s two-track economy, where chipworkers prosper and the rest of the economy muddles along. The country has
made major financial moves to prevent the export boom from driving currency appreciation
,
including deregulating many of the life insurance companies that hold foreign-currency assets
. A cheap currency makes it harder for consumers to afford imports, especially food and energy, which are largely produced off the island. The country is increasingly dependent on imported LNG as it struggles to meet the power demands of semiconductor manufacturing. And of course, any reversal in the fortunes of AI companies would now hit Taiwan extra hard. The country will have to stay at the forefront of AI chip manufacturing, navigate one of the world’s tensest geopolitical rivalries, and manage a delicate macroeconomic situation to keep its economic boom going.
然而，台湾的现代奇迹中仍然存在重大经济风险。台积电的巨大成功强化了台湾的双轨经济，芯片从业者繁荣发展，而其他经济领域则勉强维持。台湾已经
采取了重大金融举措，以防止出口繁荣推动货币升值
，
包括放松对许多持有外币资产的人寿保险公司的管制
。货币贬值使消费者更难负担进口商品，尤其是大部分在岛外生产的食品和能源。随着台湾努力满足半导体制造业的电力需求，其越来越依赖进口液化天然气。当然，任何AI公司命运的逆转现在都会对台湾造成格外严重的打击。台湾必须保持在AI芯片制造的前沿，应对全球最紧张的地缘政治对抗之一，并管理微妙的宏观经济形势，以维持其经济繁荣。
Breaking Down Taiwan’s Boom
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解析台湾的繁荣
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