【文章标题】：Weekly Dose of Optimism #206 【文章标题】：每周乐观主义剂量 #206
【文章正文】： Hi friends 👋, 嗨，朋友们👋，
Happy Friday and welcome back to our 206th Weekly Dose of Optimism! 周五快乐，欢迎回到我们的第206期每周乐观主义剂量！
This is a few minutes late because I thought it was a pretty slow week and had it all set and then new stuff just kept coming out, including Anduril announcing that they’ve launched a satellite, and I had to re-jigger things, which goes to show that the good guys and gals won’t even take one week off. 这期推送晚了几分钟，因为我原以为这周比较平淡，已经都准备好了，结果新消息接二连三地出来，包括Anduril宣布他们发射了一颗卫星，我不得不重新调整内容，这说明优秀的人们连一周都不带休息的。
There are lots of goodies in main and in the Extra Doses, but if you have some extra time this weekend, get yourself a nice big iced coffee and read the 正文和“额外剂量”里有很多好东西，不过如果你这个周末有点空闲时间，不妨给自己来一大杯冰咖啡，然后读读
third chapter in the Base Power Company story 《Base Power Company》故事的第三章
. 。
For now… 目前先……
Let’s get to it. 让我们开始吧。
Today’s Weekly Dose is brought to you by… 本周的每周剂量由……呈献。
Matic Matic
It’s not actually brought to you by Matic. They’re not paying me and they didn’t ask me to do this, although they did give me a free Matic when it first came out. They don’t even know I’m doing it. 其实并不是由Matic呈献的。他们没有付钱给我，也没有要求我这么做，虽然它刚出来的时候确实送了我一台免费的Matic。他们甚至不知道我在写这个。
It’s just… we didn’t have a sponsor this week, and as I was playing with the Matic’s new voice control last night, I realized that it’s one of the most delightful things I own and I wanted to share it with you. 只是……这周我们没有赞助商，而昨晚我在玩Matic的新语音控制时，意识到这是我拥有的最令人愉快的东西之一，想和你们分享。
Anyway, you should do yourself a favor and 总之，你应该对自己好一点，去
buy a Matic for your home 为你的家买一台Matic
. 。
(1) (1)
Avidrone wins DARPA Heavy Lift Challenge Avidrone赢得DARPA重型起重挑战赛
This week, DARPA held its Heavy Lift Challenge, a competition to see whether a drone could complete a course while lifting 4 times its own weight. 本周，DARPA举办了其“重型起重挑战赛”，这是一项考验无人机能否在吊运自身重量4倍载荷的情况下完成赛道的比赛。
Hunter Weiss Hunter Weiss
has been going viral all week posting the videos. 整个星期都在发布相关视频，这些视频迅速走红。
A Canadian company called Avidrone won with its Katana uncrewed aircraft. The 29.3 lb drone completed the course in 19:17, while carrying a payload of 112.4 lbs… just shy of the 4x mark at 3.84:1, but better than anyone else. They tried to hit 4:1 one final time and 一家名为Avidrone的加拿大公司凭借其Katana无人飞行器获胜。这架29.3磅的无人机在承载112.4磅载荷的情况下，以19分17秒完成赛道……距离4倍目标仅差一点，比例为3.84:1，但比其他人表现都好。他们最后一次尝试冲击4:1，结果
crashed hard 重重摔落
. In any case, they won 1.25x. 。无论如何，他们赢得了1.25倍。
There are military reasons for wanting heavy-lift drones or DARPA wouldn’t have done this, but the reason it’s leading off the Dose is that getting drones to be able to carry more weight, further, for less money will reshape the world like nothing since the car. 想要重型起重无人机有其军事原因，否则DARPA不会这么做，但它在“剂量”中被放在开头的原因是：让无人机能够以更低的成本，载得更重、飞得更远，这将自汽车以来前所未有地重塑世界。
Katana isn’t what that future will look like, but it’s a fun little preview. Stay tuned. Katana并不是那个未来的样子，但它是一个有趣的小小预览。敬请期待。
(2) (2)
Josh Kushner, Bob Iger to Buy Lakers for $12.5 Billion Josh Kushner、Bob Iger将以125亿美元收购湖人队
TBPN TBPN
When Thrive Capital announced Thrive Eternal in April, it prompted me to write an essay on 当Thrive Capital在四月宣布Thrive Eternal时，促使我写了一篇关于
Scarce Assets 稀缺资产
. 。
I wrote: 我写道：
Last Friday, Josh Kushner announced Thrive Eternal, the firm’s permanent capital holding company that will concentrate in a small handful of “Iconic franchises and cultural institutions rooted in tradition, identity, and shared experience,” starting with the San Francisco Giants. 上周五，Josh Kushner宣布了Thrive Eternal，这是该公司的永久资本控股公司，将专注于少数“植根于传统、身份和共同体验的标志性特许经营和文化机构”，从旧金山巨人队开始。
And look, the Giants are fine. Not having a great season, but a solid baseball franchise. A nice starter purchase for Eternal. 你看，巨人队还行。虽然本赛季表现不算出色，但作为一支棒球特许经营队伍很扎实。对Eternal来说是个不错的入门收购。
The Lakers, though? Iconic. Rare. The scarcest of the scarce. 但湖人队呢？标志性。稀有。稀缺中的稀缺。
Imagine agreeing to terms courtside at the Lakers, one of 想象一下，在湖人队场边达成协议，这里是
the 最
places to be seen. A founder pic courtside with Josh could send a company’s valuation up a billy. 最值得抛头露面的地方之一。一位创始人与Josh在场边的合影可能会让一家公司的估值飙升十亿。
Per 据
Sportico Sportico
, the $12.5B transaction set a new record price for an NBA team, surpassing… Mark Walter’s purchase of the Lakers last year. 报道，这笔125亿美元的交易创下了NBA球队的新纪录价格，超过了……Mark Walter去年对湖人队的收购。
That chart should look comfortably familiar to a venture capitalist, and it shows no signs of slowing. While there’s a new $10 billion big lab spinout neolab every week (see: 这张图表对风险投资人来说应该非常眼熟，而且它丝毫没有放缓的迹象。虽然每周都会有一个新的100亿美元的大型实验室衍生创业公司出现（参见：
Jeff Dean’s Disco Loop is in talks to raise 10B Jeff Dean的Disco Loop正在洽谈以100亿美元估值融资10亿美元
), they aren’t making any new Los Angeles Lakers. As Matthew McConaughey might say in a ），但他们不会制造新的洛杉矶湖人队。正如Matthew McConaughey可能会在
Dazed and Confused 《年少轻狂》
remake, “You know what I love about these Scarce Assets man? People keep getting richer, but they stay the same amount.” Or whatever. 翻拍版中所说的，“你知道我喜欢这些稀缺资产的什么吗，老兄？人们越来越有钱，但它们还是那么多。” 诸如此类。
In related news, Thrive 相关消息：Thrive
Holdings Holdings
, the firm’s fund that owns and operates accounting and IT services businesses, ，该公司旗下拥有并运营会计和IT服务业务的一只基金，
raised a fresh $2 billion yesterday 昨天又筹集了20亿美元
, too. Chapeau. 。太厉害了。
(3) (3)
Recast Comes Out of Stealth to Give Humans Agency Over Weather Recast走出隐身模式，让人类拥有对天气的主动权
We now live in a world in which there are 我们现在生活的世界里，有
two 两家
American startups run by young geniuses attempting to help humans direct the weather, which is awesome. Doing so might mitigate disasters, like droughts and floods, and allow us to take a more proactive approach to things like energy and terraforming. 由年轻天才创办的美国初创公司正试图帮助人类引导天气，这太棒了。这样做或许可以减轻干旱和洪水等灾害，并让我们在能源和地球化改造等方面采取更主动的方法。
Recast Systems Recast Systems
, “a weather company,” has been busy while it’s been quiet: ，一家“天气公司”，在低调期间一直很忙碌：
In the past 6 months we’ve produced a cheaper, more efficient seeding material, trained a hyper-resolution AI weather model, and operated 100+ cloud seeding flights for the governments of Texas and New Mexico. 在过去6个月里，我们生产了一种更便宜、更高效的播云材料，训练了一个超分辨率AI天气模型，并为得克萨斯州和新墨西哥州政府执行了100多次云播撒飞行。
We’ve covered Rainmaker a bunch of times in the Dose, and in 我们在“剂量”中多次报道过Rainmaker，以及在
The Great Differentiation 《伟大的差异化》
, in which I wrote that they’d earned their differentiation by doing something incredibly cool in the physical world (flying drones into clouds). 中，我写到他们通过在现实世界中做了一些非常酷的事情（把无人机飞进云层）而赢得了自己的差异化。
What I think is great about Recast’s launch is that they’re carving their own distinct, differentiated brand in the space. It’s more science-forward, more handmade. You can see it in 我认为Recast的发布很棒的一点是，他们正在这个领域打造自己独特、差异化的品牌。它更以科学为先，更手工感。你可以从
founder Olivia Li’s behind the scenes here 创始人Olivia Li的幕后花絮
, and in the images they chose for the unstealthing thread. This is the first one: 以及他们为“出隐身”帖子选择的图片中看到这一点。这是第一张：
This is the next: 这是下一张：
The sky is a really big place, and beyond cloud seeding, “the weather” is even bigger. There will be multiple winners, and the addition of a second credible startup, with a totally different vibe, adds credibility to the whole space. I think both Rainmaker and Recast will do great things, and I hope they do them ASAP. 天空是一个非常大的地方，除了云播撒之外，“天气”甚至更大。会有多个赢家，而一个风格完全不同的第二家可信初创公司的加入，为整个领域增添了可信度。我认为Rainmaker和Recast都会做出伟大的事情，我希望他们尽快做到。
To summarize: a few years ago, we had no weather startups. Now, we have two. I guess… 总结一下：几年前，我们还没有天气初创公司。现在，我们有了两家。我想……
when it rains, it pours 不雨则已，一雨倾盆
. 。
(4) (4)
Fuse’s Faeton-X Hits 1.27×10¹² Neutron Yield Fuse的Faeton-X达到1.27×10¹²中子产额
Compared to every other fusion company, the thing I love about our portfolio company 与所有其他聚变公司相比，我喜爱我们投资组合公司
Fuse Energy Fuse Energy
(aside from the founder, （除了创始人
JC Btaiche JC Btaiche
) is that it generates revenue by selling radiation on the way to generating power from fusion. 之外）的一点是，它在实现聚变发电的过程中，通过出售辐射来产生收入。
When I 当我在
wrote about the company in May 2024 2024年5月写过这家公司
, I described a couple of paths. The TITAN path - from TITAN to Z STAR to APEIRON, is what will ultimately deliver fusion power to the grid. 时，我描述了几条路径。TITAN路径——从TITAN到Z STAR再到APEIRON——最终将为电网提供聚变电力。
The FAETON path, while not the path to fusion directly, produces valuable neutron shots: “In the near-term, Fuse actually expects to make more money from FAETON II shots than it does from TITAN II shots, because the value of FAETON II’s neutron-producing shots are twice as valuable as TITAN II’s.” Defense contractors and satellite makers pay tens of thousands of dollars a shot to blast their electronics with neutrons to find out whether they could survive a nuclear detonation or a decade of radiation in orbit. FAETON路径虽然不直接通向聚变，但能产生有价值的中子射击：“短期内，Fuse实际上预计从FAETON II射击中赚到的钱比TITAN II射击更多，因为FAETON II产生中子的射击价值是TITAN II的两倍。”国防承包商和卫星制造商每次射击要支付数万美元，用中子轰击他们的电子设备，以确定它们能否在核爆炸或十年轨道辐射中幸存下来。
FAETON also uses some of the same components, namely the Brick, “the high-voltage capacitor and gas switch that is the fundamental building block of its pulsed power generators” FAETON也使用了一些相同的组件，即Brick，“高压电容器和气体开关，是其脉冲功率发电机的基本构件”
All of which is a long way of introducing the importance of this breakthrough. This week, Fuse published results from FAETON-X, showing that it generated 1.27×10¹² fusion neutrons in one shot, making them the first fusion company to publicly document a yield in the 10¹² range. 所有这些都是一种引出这一突破重要性的长篇方式。本周，Fuse公布了FAETON-X的结果，显示它在一次射击中产生了1.27×10¹²个聚变中子，这使他们成为第一家公开记录10¹²量级产额的聚变公司。
Importantly, though, they did it with a higher current efficiency than the labs: 不过，重要的是，他们以比实验室更高的电流效率做到了这一点：
4.5 MA/MJ 4.5 MA/MJ
, highest current efficiency ever for a MJ-class plasma focus, against 2.35–3.25 for all published peers including government machines. It took Livermore’s MJOLNIR 1.3 MJ to produce 1.2×10¹² neutrons, where it only took Fuse 1 MJ to produce its 1.27×10¹². ，这是MJ级等离子体焦点有史以来最高的电流效率，而所有已发表的同行（包括政府机器）为2.35–3.25。利弗莫尔的MJOLNIR产生1.2×10¹²个中子需要1.3 MJ，而Fuse产生1.27×10¹²个中子只需1 MJ。
That 这
is important, because yield in pulsed-power z-pinch devices scales as the fourth power of drive current. Current efficiency is the compounding variable of which yield is the derivative. 40% more current per MJ gets you 4x more fusion, not just 40% more. 很重要，因为脉冲功率Z箍缩装置的产额随驱动电流的四次方变化。电流效率是复利变量，产额是其导数。每MJ增加40%的电流，得到的聚变输出增加4倍，而不仅仅是40%。
This is maybe the most important curve for Fuse: neutrons per megajoule of capacitor bank. On Faeton, it means delivering those valuable neutron shots more efficiently. On the TITAN path, it means that everything gets smaller and cheaper for the same current, which could mean getting to fusion power, and making it cheaper, sooner. 这可能是对Fuse来说最重要的曲线：每兆焦耳电容器组产生的中子数。在Faeton上，这意味着更高效地提供那些有价值的中子射击。在TITAN路径上，这意味着在相同电流下，一切都变得更小、更便宜，这可能意味着更快实现聚变发电，并使其更便宜。
This is the Fuse thesis, too. Instead of straight-shotting fusion like competitors, get out in the field and start selling. Iterate. Improve the brick on FAETON, and bring it to TITAN. Move fast. They went from design to first shot on FAETON-X in nine months, and from first shot to record in another nine. Keep interacting with the messiness of the real world, keep iterating, and maybe one day the iterative approach gets you to the end goal faster. 这也是Fuse的论点。不像竞争对手那样直奔聚变，而是到现场去开始销售。迭代。改进FAETON上的Brick，并将其带到TITAN。快速行动。他们从设计到FAETON-X首次射击用了九个月，从首次射击到打破纪录又用了九个月。持续与真实世界的混乱互动，持续迭代，也许有一天迭代方法能让你更快达到最终目标。
If not, there’s a lot of very useful stuff you can do with all that radiation at Q<1. 如果没有，那么在Q<1的情况下，你可以用所有这些辐射做很多非常有用的东西。
(5) (5)
Matic Now Lets You Talk to Your Robot Matic现在让你和机器人对话
I love our 我爱我们的
Matic Matic
. It reliably vacuums and mops. It’s proof of the saying that something is called a robot until it works. The Matic robot works, so we just call it the Matic. 。它能可靠地吸尘和拖地。这证明了那句话：在东西真正好用之前，它才叫机器人。Matic机器人确实好用，所以我们干脆叫它Matic。
Yesterday, the Matic reintroduced the magic. You can (and last night, I did) talk to it, and tell it where to clean. From the company’s tweet: 昨天，Matic重新引入了魔法。你可以（昨晚我就这么做了）和它说话，告诉它去哪里清洁。摘自该公司的推文：
-
Say “Hey Matic” - it locates your voice, turns, and looks at you
-
说“Hey Matic”——它会定位你的声音，转身看着你
-
Say “Hey Matic, follow me” and start walking. Matic will follow behind
-
说“Hey Matic，跟我来”，然后开始走。Matic会跟在后面
-
Say “Hey Matic, go clean the living room”. Since it knows your house map, it navigates and just does it
-
说“Hey Matic，去打扫客厅”。由于它知道你的房屋地图，它会导航并直接去做
People think the path to robots doing useful things in our home will look like a person. Matic’s bet has been that it’ll just be really useful at one thing, and then get useful at more things. So far, it