Back in may, micron and SK, hy ex two memory chip companies produced 17% of the entire global stock markets return for the month, and 17% of the chip sector and 17% of the every lasted company in every country added together. That’s for a report by Ocado, an asset management, the global market. Their measure is the MSCIA, the world index, which holds thousands of stocks across dozens of countries. And micron and SK, highest ks, about about 1% of fees. And for every dollar, the global market rose in may, about 17 cent of it came from just those two stocks.
早在五月份，美光和SK海力士这两家内存芯片公司就贡献了当月全球股市总回报的17%，也贡献了芯片板块的17%，以及所有国家所有上市公司合计的17%。这是根据资产管理公司Ocado的一份报告得出的。他们衡量的是MSCI ACWI全球指数，该指数涵盖数十个国家的数千只股票。而美光和SK海力士的权重大约只有1%左右。五月份全球市场每上涨1美元，其中大约17美分就来自这两只股票。
This raises the awkward question, if two chip stocks that most people on the street have never heard of, it’s not like it’s apple and Google can hold the entire planets equity markets upwards, what happens to your portfolio on the way back down? So today we’re going to look at how exposed ordinary investors are to the A. I. Trade, why the usual places to hide may not be working anymore, and roughly how much money would disappear if the whole thing fell apart?
这就引出了一个尴尬的问题：如果两只大多数街头人士从未听说过的芯片股——又不是苹果和谷歌——就能把整个地球的股市往上推，那么当它们回落时，你的投资组合会怎样？所以今天我们要来看看普通投资者对AI交易的敞口有多大，为什么通常的避险去处可能不再管用，以及如果整个局面崩溃，大约会有多少钱蒸发。
Now let me clarify something up front. And we’re going to spend a while looking at what happens if this all goes wrong. There’s no consensus that it is going to go wrong. Plenty of smart people think that we’re standing at the start of an enormous boom, that AI is a real technology that the reshape the economy and eventually more than justify the money being poured into it. And they might well be right. In fact, you have to assume that most of the people involved to believe exactly that because it’s the only thing that explains what they’re doing. This is why investors are putting money in at these valuations. It’s why the taxi yells are committing hundreds of billions of dollars to data centers and one spends like this, and they’re convinced that the payoff is going to be huge.
现在让我先澄清一点。我们会花一些时间来看看如果这一切都出问题会发生什么。但目前并没有共识认为它一定会出问题。许多聪明人认为，我们正站在一场巨大繁荣的起点，AI是一项真实的技术，将重塑经济，并最终足以证明投入其中的资金是合理的。他们很可能是对的。事实上，你必须假设大多数参与者都相信这一点，因为这是唯一能解释他们所作所为的理由。这就是为什么投资者愿意在这些估值水平上投入资金。这也是为什么科技巨头们承诺向数据中心投入数千亿美元以及类似这样的支出，他们坚信回报将是巨大的。
The optimists, to be really clear, aren’t a fringe. They are the majority, and their optimism is the reason all of this exists in the first place. So I’m not here to tell you the crashes coming. Nobody knows that. And anyone who says that they do is guessing. In fact, later on will look at some of the confident but wrong predictions from the past. What this video is about is trying to estimate the downside risk. If the balls are right, everything works out fine, and we will all look back and wonder what all the first is about. But if the beds are right, even if some of this turns out to be a bubble, it’s worth looking at the estimates of how much is actually at stake, particularly when the party still on.
需要明确的是，乐观主义者并不是边缘少数派。他们是多数派，而他们的乐观正是这一切存在的首要原因。所以我在这里不是要告诉你崩盘即将来临。没有人知道这一点。任何声称自己知道的人都是在猜测。事实上，稍后我们会看看过去一些自信但错误的预测。这个视频要做的是尝试估算下行风险。如果多头是对的，一切都会好起来，我们将来都会回头看，纳闷当初有什么好大惊小怪的。但如果空头是对的，即使其中一部分被证明是泡沫，也值得看看实际面临风险的金额有多大，尤其是在派对还在进行的时候。
So diversification is the wanting in finance. Everybody agrees is a good idea. Investors treat the world like the magical encounter, one which can protect them from market crashes, inflation and poor decision making. The spread your money across lots of different things so that when one of them blows up, the others keep your return steady is the closest the industry has to a free lunch. And for most of history, it has worked the sepa years ago. The big worry among those who worry for a living, the sector concentration in the N. P. 500, the Conried, the seven companies, the Magnificent Seven, had grown so large that the index everyone taught of us. The American stock market was really just seven tech stocks in a trench code.
分散投资是金融领域唯一被公认的好主意。大家都认为这是个好主意。投资者把世界当作一种神奇的解药，可以保护他们免受市场崩盘、通货膨胀和糟糕决策的影响。把你的钱分散到许多不同的东西上，这样当其中一项爆雷时，其他项能保持你的回报稳定，这几乎是这个行业里唯一的免费午餐。而且在历史上大部分时间里，它确实有效。几年前，那些以担忧为生的人最大的担忧是标普500指数的板块集中度——集中的七家公司，也就是“七巨头”，已经变得如此庞大，以至于大家心目中的美国股市实际上只是七只披着风衣的科技股。
Concern has since grown. It’s no longer seven stocks that we have to worry about, but a whole sector and a sector which famously doesn’t stay in its lane. AI started out looking like a handful of tech giants, and it worked its way into nearly everything. And I don’t just mean the companies pretending to use it. The obvious ones are the cheap makers, but is also the utilities and data centers is huge amount of power. So a company whose job is to keep the lights on in Ohio is now partially an AI stock, or at least its valuation is to tie to the station. The data centers will soon become huge customers. Its real estate too, but someone has to own the warehouses full of customers and its construction, as there’s a huge boom in data center construction across the United States. The AI trade now employees, electrons and lots of them.
此后担忧有增无减。我们不再只需要担心七只股票，而是整个板块，而且这个板块出了名地不安分守己。AI起初看起来像是一小撮科技巨头，后来它几乎渗透到了一切事物中。我指的不只是那些假装使用AI的公司。最明显的是芯片制造商，但公用事业和数据中心也是，因为需要大量电力。所以一家在俄亥俄州负责供电的公司现在在一定程度上是一只AI股票，至少其估值与这一形势挂钩。数据中心很快将成为它们的大客户。房地产也是如此，因为总得有人拥有那些装满服务器的仓库；建筑也是如此，因为美国各地正在掀起数据中心建设热潮。AI交易现在雇佣的是电子，而且是大量电子。
Then there’s the money that the boom has already made. A few weeks ago, space X, O, in public, turning around 4000, 400 of its employees into millionaire overnight, including 400 of them who are now worked more than $100 million each. The people whose job is to sell it to the rich noticed it immediately. The state agent in California accounts reported a wave of inquiries about new homes. Private jet firms report extra business from those who wanted to celebrate the po with a trip somewhere. And apparently, the single most popular purchase after an event like this is a luxury somewhere because, as one watch dealer explained, the share certificate sits in a broker account where nobody can see it, but the watch goes on your wrist, which is AA nice way of describing the urge to the gaters know how, how a everything’s been going somewhere. The point is that the world doesn’t stay with th
然后是这场繁荣已经创造的财富。几周前，SpaceX虽然未上市，却一夜之间让约4400名员工成为百万富翁，其中400人现在每人身家超过1亿美元。那些靠向富人卖东西为生的人立刻注意到了这一点。据报道，加利福尼亚州的房地产经纪人收到了一波关于新房的咨询。私人飞机公司报告说，那些想庆祝这笔收益而去某地旅行的人带来了额外业务。而且显然，这类事件之后最受欢迎的购买品是一块奢侈手表，因为正如一位手表经销商所解释的，股票证书放在经纪账户里没人看得见，但手表戴在手腕上，这是一种很好的方式来形容那种想让守门人知道一切进展得多么顺利的冲动。重点是，世界并不会停留在……