【文章标题】：A Minor Detail
【文章标题】：一个次要细节
【文章正文】：
“What it lies in our power to do, it lies in our power not to do.”
– Aristotle
“凡是我们有能力去做的事，我们也有能力不去做。”
——亚里士多德
In mid-July, the pro-Ukrainian open-source feeds we monitor lit up with reports of a major drone assault on Russian-connected ships in the Sea of Azov. Over the span of roughly ten days, dozens of commercial vessels were allegedly hit, causing significant damage to several and prompting a major disruption of that important commercial transportation vector. Although one must take such primary-source data with some skepticism, sufficient video evidence emerged to lend weight to the claims. This, along with rueful laments in several pro-Russian channels, was enough to convince us that a potentially important development was in progress.
七月中旬，我们监控的亲乌克兰开源信息源上，关于亚速海俄罗斯相关船只遭受大规模无人机袭击的报道纷至沓来。在约十天的时间里，据称有数十艘商船遭到袭击，其中几艘严重受损，并导致这条重要的商业运输线路受到重大干扰。尽管对这类第一手数据需持一定怀疑态度，但出现的足够视频证据为这些说法增加了可信度。再加上几个亲俄频道中哀叹连连，足以让我们相信，一场潜在的重大事态正在发生。
Important chokepoints | Britannica
重要咽喉要道 | 大英百科全书
Among the vessels targeted were, notably, several carrying Russian grain exports. Since shortly after the war began in 2022, a fragile détente has largely held against targeting food supplies intended for global consumption, to the loud and bitter complaints of many Russian hardliners. In their telling, huge volumes of Western weapons have landed over the course of the war at the port of Odessa—Ukraine’s primary outlet for supporting its agricultural exports—to be used in killing Russians on the battlefield. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s tolerance of the situation has been a source of frustration and bewilderment.
值得注意的是，被瞄准的船只中有几艘运载着俄罗斯的粮食出口。自2022年战争爆发后不久，一项脆弱的缓和局面在很大程度上抑制了针对全球消费食品供应的打击，这引起了俄罗斯许多强硬派的强烈不满和苦涩抱怨。按照他们的说法，战争期间，大量西方武器通过敖德萨港——乌克兰支撑其农产品出口的主要出口——运抵，用于在战场上杀害俄罗斯人。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京对这一状况的容忍，一直是令他们沮丧和困惑的根源。
It didn’t take long for Putin to use the cover of Ukraine’s attacks on grain cargoes to reverse his temperance. Over the subsequent weeks, a massive and devastating campaign was launched that targeted commercial ships coming to and from Ukraine’s ports as well as vast swaths of critical port infrastructure. As a result, the Black Sea is all but sealed off from Ukraine, turning the country into a
landlocked state
:
“
The near-term effects have been disturbingly clear. Since July 22, the Russian military has effectively closed the Ukrainian port complex in and around Odessa to all shipping. The loss of its remaining deep-water ports is already having a devastating effect on Ukraine’s agricultural exports — the backbone of its economy — which officials warn may plummet by 50% in the coming months because alternative land, rail, and river routes have much less capacity and are much more costly.
”
没过多久，普京就利用乌克兰对粮食货物的袭击作为掩护，逆转了他的克制态度。随后几周，一场大规模且毁灭性的行动展开，目标对准进出乌克兰港口的商船以及大片关键港口基础设施。其结果是，黑海几乎对乌克兰完全封闭，使该国变成一个
内陆国家
：
“
近期影响已经令人不安地清晰。自7月22日以来，俄罗斯军方已有效关闭了敖德萨及周边地区的乌克兰港口综合体，禁止一切航运。失去剩余深水港口已经对乌克兰的农业出口——其经济支柱——造成毁灭性影响，官员警告说，由于替代的陆路、铁路和内河航线运力低得多且成本高得多，未来几个月出口量可能骤降50%。
”
Fish in a barrel | Getty
瓮中之鳖 | 盖蒂图片社
Adding intrigue, and almost certainly the real reason Russia acted so swiftly and with disproportionate force, was news of a rather unusual weapons deal brokered by the US government. We turn to the
Kyiv Independent
for
the details
:
“
Ukraine has purchased a significant package of US-made defense equipment from Turkey, including 70 long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), according to U.S. congressional records.
The weapons transfer is expected to be initiated in late August.
The package includes 70 M39 ATACMS missiles, 12 M270 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS), over 2,000 cluster munitions, and 47,000 howitzer rounds, according to a notice from the US State Department recorded in congressional minutes on Aug. 6.
”
更添神秘色彩，且几乎可以肯定俄罗斯之所以如此迅速且以不成比例的武力采取行动，其真正原因是一桩由美国政府斡旋的相当不寻常的武器交易。我们转向
《基辅独立报》
获取
细节
：
“
据美国国会记录，乌克兰已从土耳其购买了一大批美国制造的国防设备，包括70套远程陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS）。
武器转移预计将于8月底启动。
根据8月6日记录在国会会议记录中的美国国务院通知，该批装备包括70枚M39 ATACMS导弹、12套M270多管火箭系统（MLRS）、2000多枚集束弹药和47000发榴弹炮弹。
”
This string of news items does not merely capture the latest pushing and shoving in a long-in-the-tooth war that most wish they could see the other side of. With Turkey entering the fray, the dots here connect in a way that foretells substantial risk to Europe’s already weakened position ahead of what looks likely to be a historically challenging winter. To state it plainly, escalating tensions between Russia and Turkey are the last thing Brussels needs, even if few in the European Commission realize it. With the flick of a switch, Putin will soon be in a position to literally turn out the lights across Europe, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan might well provide the perfect excuse for him to throw it. Let’s build the case.
这一连串新闻不仅仅捕捉了一场旷日持久的战争中的最新推搡与角力——这场战争是大多数人都希望看到结局的。随着土耳其加入战局，这些线索串联起来，预示着欧洲本已疲弱的地位将面临巨大风险，而即将到来的冬天很可能具有历史性的挑战。说白了，俄罗斯与土耳其之间不断升级的紧张局势是布鲁塞尔最不需要的，尽管欧盟委员会中几乎没有人意识到这一点。只需轻按开关，普京很快就能名副其实地让整个欧洲陷入黑暗，而土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安很可能为普京拉动开关提供完美的借口。让我们来论证这一点。
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