【文章标题】：America’s Electricity Gap
【文章标题】：美国的电力缺口
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America has entered another era of electrification—US power consumption has risen more in the last two years than over the previous 15 combined. Yet this hasn’t been nearly enough to meet demand, with electricity prices also rising more over the last 4 years than the prior 14.
美国已进入另一个电气化时代——过去两年的电力消费增长超过了此前15年的总和。然而，这还远远不足以满足需求，过去4年的电价涨幅也超过了此前14年的总和。
Demand from AI, heavy industry, heating, and transport is driving load growth but also outstripping growth in power infrastructure—leaving America with an increasingly large electricity gap that’s driving up prices.
来自人工智能、重工业、供暖和交通的需求正在推动负荷增长，但也超过了电力基础设施的增长速度——这使美国面临日益扩大的电力缺口，进而推高了电价。
Projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expect generation to accelerate slightly over the next two years, growing another 4.6% in total, but that’s still not quick enough to close the gap or prevent further price appreciation.
美国能源信息署（EIA）的预测显示，未来两年发电量将略有加速，总计再增长4.6%，但这仍不足以弥合缺口，也无法阻止电价进一步上涨。
The return of sustained load growth after more than a decade and a half of stagnation represents a fundamental change in America’s energy markets, with the source of rising demand shifting alongside its scale. Indeed, the EIA expects more upcoming load growth to come from commercial entities—a category that includes data centers—than from industrial and residential uses combined. If those projections hold true, commercial power consumption will have grown more in the 4 years since ChatGPT’s launch than in the two decades prior.
在经历了长达15年以上的停滞之后，持续负荷增长的回归标志着美国能源市场的根本性变化，需求增长的来源也随着规模的变化而转变。事实上，EIA预计未来新增负荷增长中，来自商业实体（包括数据中心）的部分将超过工业与住宅用电的总和。如果这些预测成真，那么自ChatGPT推出以来的4年间，商业电力消费的增长将超过此前20年的总和。
The second fundamental change in electricity markets is how the US is meeting the new rise in power demand—by deploying record amounts of renewable energy, primarily solar and batteries. 2025 saw the largest year-on-year increase in US solar generation on record, with total solar power rising 28% to 389TWh. That’s despite the Trump administration cutting subsidies to wind and solar production, cancelling permitting approvals for major projects, and imposing tariffs on many of the sector’s key inputs. Solar power growth is projected to slow slightly this year, though remaining near its 2024 pace, before breaking the growth record again in 2027.
电力市场的第二个根本性变化是美国如何满足新增电力需求——通过部署创纪录数量的可再生能源，主要是太阳能和电池。2025年美国太阳能发电量创下了有史以来最大的同比增幅，总太阳能发电量增长28%，达到389太瓦时。这还是在特朗普政府削减风能和太阳能生产补贴、取消重大项目许可审批、并对该行业许多关键投入品征收关税的情况下取得的。预计今年太阳能发电增速将略有放缓，但仍将接近2024年的水平，随后在2027年再次打破增长纪录。
In other words, solar power will be meeting the majority of US load growth for the first time in history. Yet America has fallen significantly behind both China and the European Union in terms of solar energy deployment, even on a per-capita basis. Legacy US coal plants, which have been closing for decades as they’ve been outcompeted by natural gas and solar, are now being retired at the slowest pace since 2010 as grids are forced to keep them online to meet growing demand. America was one of only a few major countries that increased coal power production in 2025, a year when even coal powerhouses China and India reduced their use.
换句话说，太阳能将首次在历史上满足美国大部分负荷增长。然而，美国在太阳能部署方面已明显落后于中国和欧盟，即使按人均计算也是如此。美国传统燃煤电厂几十年来因无法与天然气和太阳能竞争而陆续关闭，如今却正以2010年以来最慢的速度退役，因为电网被迫让它们继续运行以满足不断增长的需求。美国是2025年少数几个增加煤电产量的主要国家之一，而这一年，就连煤炭大国中国和印度都减少了煤炭使用量。
Meanwhile, US residential electricity prices are up more than 40% since 2020 and continue rising.
与此同时，美国居民电价自2020年以来已上涨超过40%，并且仍在继续攀升。
Given the rise in energy demand over the last year and the fossil-fuel price shock caused by the US attack on Iran, prices are likely to increase even further in the near future. That also means the Trump administration’s decision to block major solar, wind, and battery projects now has much higher economic costs. Their decision to exempt computers and other data center inputs from tariffs while hitting key electrical infrastructure like wires, transformers, and batteries further exacerbates the energy crunch.
考虑到去年能源需求的增长以及美国攻击伊朗引发的化石燃料价格冲击，电价在不久的将来很可能会进一步上涨。这也意味着特朗普政府阻止大型太阳能、风能和电池项目的决定如今带来了高得多的经济成本。他们决定对计算机和其他数据中心投入品免征关税，同时对电线、变压器和电池等关键电力基础设施加征关税，这进一步加剧了能源紧张。
Yet the fact that renewable energy is still growing rapidly, even in such an unfavorable policy environment, speaks to the scale of the technological acceleration currently underway. Solar and batteries are growing at a record pace throughout nearly the entire globe, increasingly winning on cost and accessibility in the US and in places as politically and economically disparate as Pakistan or Germany. Deploying them faster will be key to closing America’s electricity gap.
然而，即使在如此不利的政策环境下，可再生能源仍在快速增长，这一事实本身就说明了当前技术加速发展的规模。太阳能和电池在全球几乎每个角落都在以创纪录的速度增长，在美国以及巴基斯坦、德国等政治经济迥异的地方，都日益凭借成本和可及性优势胜出。加快部署它们将是弥合美国电力缺口的关键。
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America’s Energy Investment Boom
美国的能源投资热潮
The US is currently investing record amounts into power generation, driven entirely by the rapid growth in “alternative” energy sources like wind and solar. In real terms, the scale of that investment has more than doubled since 2020 and is up more than 10x since 2010. Likewise, investment in electrical transmission and distribution equipment also hit a record high at the start of this year, though it has since fallen back to 2023 levels. Meanwhile, investment in “traditional” electricity generators like natural gas, coal, and nuclear has been essentially flat over the last four years and remains well below its record highs.
美国目前正在对发电领域进行创纪录的投资，这完全是由风能和太阳能等”替代”能源的快速增长所推动。按实际价值计算，该投资规模自2020年以来已增长一倍以上，自2010年以来增长了10倍以上。同样，输配电设备的投资也在今年年初创下历史新高，尽管此后回落至2023年的水平。与此同时，天然气、煤炭和核能等”传统”发电机的投资在过去四年中基本持平，仍远低于历史最高水平。
Total US renewable capacity additions took a major hit at the start of 2025 when the Trump administration first returned to office, but rebounded to new record highs in the second half of last year. The EIA projects the US will break that record again over the next two years, primarily thanks to growth in utility-scale solar deployments. Battery additions will also hit record highs to supplement those new solar panels, while wind power additions will rise slightly this year before sinking near post-COVID lows next year.
2025年初，当特朗普政府首次重新执政时，美国可再生能源新增装机容量受到了重大打击，但在去年下半年反弹至新的历史高点。EIA预计，美国将在未来两年再次打破这一纪录，主要得益于公用事业规模太阳能部署的增长。电池新增装机也将创下历史新高，以补充这些新增太阳能板，而风电新增装机将在今年小幅增长，明年跌至接近疫情后的低点。
Of course, power capacity is not power generation, and renewable power sources have lower capacity factors than their fossil-fuel counterparts because they generate less electricity at night, during cloudy days, or when the wind is weak. Yet renewable generation is also at record highs and expected to rise further, due almost entirely to solar. US solar output rose 28% in 2025 and is projected to rise another 16% this year and 20% in 2027. By then, it’ll make up 11.3% of total electricity.
当然，装机容量并不等于发电量，可再生能源的容量因子低于化石燃料能源，因为它们在夜间、阴天或风力较弱时发电量较少。然而，可再生能源发电量也处于历史高位，预计将进一步上升，这几乎完全归功于太阳能。美国太阳能发电量在2025年增长了28%，预计今年将再增长16%，2027年增长20%。届时，太阳能将占总发电量的11.3%。
The greatest problem with solar is its temporal inconsistency, with the sun’s output varying by the hour, day, and month. This problem becomes even more acute when solar makes up a larger share of the grid, as electricity becomes overabundant during the daytime and summer but remains scarce at night or during winter. This variability makes short and long-duration batteries an obvious and necessary complement to solar panels.
太阳能最大的问题在于其时间上的不稳定性，太阳能的输出随小时、日期和月份而变化。当太阳能在电网中占据更大份额时，这一问题变得更加尖锐，因为电力在白天和夏季会过剩，而在夜间或冬季仍然稀缺。这种波动性使得短时和长时电池成为太阳能板的明显且必要的补充。
That’s why the US is also building record amounts of utility-scale battery storage, with the pace of additions hitting an all-time high in late 2025 and expected to grow further over the next two years. Total US battery power capacity, which measures the peak amount of electricity deployable at a given moment, is projected to double over the next two years to almost 90GW.
这就是为什么美国也在建设创纪录数量的公用事业规模电池储能，新增速度在2025年末达到历史最高水平，并预计在未来两年内进一步增长。美国电池总功率容量（衡量某一时刻可部署的峰值电量）预计将在未来两年内翻一番，达到近90吉瓦。
Official data don’t provide timely measures of energy capacity (the total amount batteries could supply to the grid through a full discharge), but industry sources also show it rising even faster than power capacity, up more than 55% in 2025.
官方数据并未及时提供能量容量（电池通过完全放电可向电网供应的总电量）的衡量指标，但行业消息来源也显示其增长速度甚至超过功率容量，2025年增长超过55%。
In 2019, there was virtually no utility-scale battery capacity in the United States, and solar only made up about 2.5% of American electricity. Now solar not only provides vastly more electricity during the peak daytime hours but also charges batteries, which then provide additional power near dawn and dusk. Averaging hourly power generation across the entire year, batteries now provide roughly 26.7 GWh throughout the day, with 6.3 GWh delivered in the peak hour alone.
2019年，美国几乎没有公用事业规模的电池容量，太阳能仅占美国电力的约2.5%。如今，太阳能不仅在白天高峰时段提供大量电力，还为电池充电，电池随后在黎明和黄昏前后提供额外电力。按全年每小时发电量平均计算，电池现在全天提供约26.7吉瓦时的电力，其中仅高峰时段就输送了6.3吉瓦时。
At the scale of the entire country, this is still only a tiny portion of overall electricity, with gross discharges equaling about 0.2% of total electricity consumption. Yet during bright summer days in California, Texas, and some other parts of the US, solar already frequently generates more power than needed to meet all grid demand during midday, charging batteries that meet a significant portion of demand after sunset.
从整个国家的规模来看，这仍然只占总电力的极小部分，总放电量约为总用电量的0.2%。然而，在加利福尼亚、得克萨斯和美国其他一些地区的晴朗夏日，太阳能经常在中午产生超过满足所有电网需求所需的电力，为电池充电，而这些电池在日落后满足了相当大一部分需求。
That generation pattern will only become more common as solar and batteries both become more widespread throughout the United States in the near future.
随着太阳能和电池在不久的将来在美国各地变得更加普及，这种发电模式只会变得更加普遍。
Even more solar and batteries will be built throughout the United States in the near future, with over 40GW of solar and 22GW of battery capacity slated to come online in the next year. Those solar and battery plants are especially concentrated in the sunbelt—with Texas (16GW of solar, 12GW of batteries), California (2.7 GW of solar, 3.2GW of batteries), and Arizona (2.6GW of solar and 3GW of batteries) leading the pack. Texas alone is set to make up 55% of new US battery capacity and 41% of new solar capacity over the next year.
在不久的将来，美国各地还将建设更多的太阳能和电池设施，预计明年将有超过40吉瓦的太阳能和22吉瓦的电池容量投入运营。这些太阳能和电池电站尤其集中在阳光地带——得克萨斯州（16吉瓦太阳能、12吉瓦电池）、加利福尼亚州（2.7吉瓦太阳能、3.2吉瓦电池）和亚利桑那州（2.6吉瓦太阳能、3吉瓦电池）领先。仅得克萨斯州就将在明年占美国新增电池容量的55%和新增太阳能容量的41%。
Indeed, Texas is seeing by far the fastest electricity growth of any region in the United States—total power generation in ERCOT, the state’s main utility interconnection, has already risen nearly 30% above pre-COVID levels and is projected to reach 57% above those levels by 2027. The PJM interconnection, which covers mid-Atlantic states from New Jersey to Virginia and is a major data center construction hub, is at a distant second place with less than 15% total growth from 2019 to 2027.
事实上，得克萨斯州是美国电力增长最快的地区，遥遥领先于其他地区——ERCOT（该州主要的电网互联系统）的总发电量已比疫情前水平上升近30%，预计到2027年将比这些水平高出57%。PJM互联系统覆盖从新泽西到弗吉尼亚的大西洋中部各州，是主要的数据中心建设枢纽，以2019年至2027年不到15%的总增长率位居遥远的第二。
Natural gas will still meet the majority of Texas’ load growth over the next two years, but solar alone will cover 40% of new demand while wind will cover another 9%. That means solar will rise to 18% of the state’s power by 2027, up from 12% last year and rapidly approaching wind’s 21%.
未来两年，天然气仍将满足得克萨斯州大部分的负荷增长，但仅太阳能就将覆盖40%的新增需求，风电将再覆盖9%。这意味着到2027年，太阳能将占该州电力的18%，高于去年的12%，并迅速接近风电的21%。
The rise in US solar and battery deployment has also had important effects beyond the direct investment in generation and transmission infrastructure—with major spillovers to the entire electrical supply chain and labor market. Most prominently, the US is in the midst of a massive increase in domestic battery production, with output rising 37% over the last year and tripling since late 2019. Many of those battery factories have been redirected from EV production, where adoption has slowed as federal incentives are cut, to utility-scale production. Overall, domestic output now meets the highest share of US demand in years, although the US is far from self-sufficient and net battery imports still totaled $19.6B in 2025.
美国太阳能和电池部署的增长，除了对发电和输电基础设施的直接投资外，还产生了重要影响——对整个电力供应链和劳动力市场产生了巨大的溢出效应。最显著的是，美国正处于国内电池产量大幅增长的时期，产量在过去一年增长了37%，自2019年底以来增长了两倍。许多电池工厂已从电动汽车生产（因联邦激励措施削减导致 adoption 放缓）转向公用事业规模的生产。总体而言，国内产量目前满足了多年来美国需求的最高份额，尽管美国远未实现自给自足，2025年电池净进口总额仍达196亿美元。
On the labor market front, while utilities have cut roughly 6k jobs at fossil-fuel generating plants since the end of 2019, they have added roughly 24k jobs at low-carbon non-fossil-fuel plants over the same time frame. Add in gains from the transmission, control, and distribution, and electric power utilities have added a total of 48k jobs. Power and communication line builders and electrical equipment manufacturers have also added 35k and 49k jobs, respectively, breaking out of an extended period of stagnation. Yet the largest growth has been among electricians and electrical contractors, where employment has risen nearly 150k to a new record high.
在劳动力市场方面，虽然公用事业公司自2019年底以来在化石燃料发电厂削减了约6,000个工作岗位，但同期在低碳非化石燃料电厂增加了约24,000个工作岗位。再加上输电、控制和配电领域的增长，电力公用事业公司总共增加了48,000个工作岗位。电力和通信线路建设者以及电气设备制造商也分别增加了35,000个和49,000个工作岗位，摆脱了长期的停滞状态。然而，增长最大的是电工和电气承包商，就业人数增加了近15万，创下新高。
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Conclusions
结论
The rapid rise in AI-related data center power demand and its subsequent backlash have understandably dominated much of the recent public discourse around electricity investment. The fact that most major tech companies are now deciding to fund their own grid capacity proves just how important power access is to their gamble on AI development and how increasingly politicized energy consumption has become. Yet while AI development is a prime driver of current grid expansion, America was always going to need more power investment to meet this phase of economic growth and was already struggling to meet rising electricity demand well before the AI boom.
与人工智能相关的数据中心电力需求的迅速增长及其随后引发的反弹，理所当然地主导了近期围绕电力投资的大部分公共讨论。大多数大型科技公司现在决定自行资助电网容量，这一事实证明了电力获取对其押注人工智能发展的重要性，也证明了能源消费已变得越来越政治化。然而，尽管人工智能发展是当前电网扩张的主要驱动力，但美国无论何时都需要更多的电力投资来满足这一阶段的经济增长，而且在人工智能繁荣之前，美国就已经在努力应对不断增长的电力需求。
American manufacturing’s power consumption is poised to increase as factories