Are we watching the U.S. go bankrupt?
我们正在目睹美国走向破产吗？
“Gradually, then suddenly.” — The Sun Also Rises
“先是逐渐地，然后突然地。”——《太阳照常升起》
Lots of people are worried about rising long-term interest rates. Short-term interest rates are controlled by the central bank. But the Fed doesn’t usually intervene in the market for longer-term bonds, so when these interest rates move around, it means the market is telling us something. So a lot of people were worried when the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds
jumped by 6 basis points (0.06%) the other day
.
很多人担心长期利率上升。短期利率由中央银行控制。但美联储通常不干预长期债券市场，所以当这些利率波动时，意味着市场在向我们传递某种信息。因此，当30年期美国国债收益率前几天跳升6个基点（0.06%）时，很多人感到担忧。
Why were people scared? Well, remember that when interest rates go up, it means bond
prices
went down. Which means that fewer people wanted to buy U.S. government bonds. This could be a signal of several bad things:
人们为什么害怕？好吧，请记住，当利率上升时，意味着债券价格下跌。这意味着想购买美国政府债券的人减少了。这可能是几个坏信号的征兆：
It could signal
expectations of higher inflation
. When future money will be worth less, bond investors demand higher interest rates today. Higher inflation also means the Fed will probably raise interest rates.
它可能预示着更高的通胀预期。当未来的货币购买力下降时，债券投资者今天就会要求更高的利率。更高的通胀也意味着美联储可能会加息。
It could signal
a loss of confidence in the U.S. government
. If people think there’s a possibility that the U.S. won’t repay its debts, they will charge a higher risk premium to hold that debt. These doubting investors are sometimes called “bond vigilantes”. Bond vigilantes could be scared by soaring U.S. debt levels and deficits, and/or by irresponsible geopolitical and economic policies from the Trump administration.
它可能预示着对美国政府的信心丧失。如果人们认为美国有可能不偿还债务，他们就会要求更高的风险溢价来持有这些债务。这些持怀疑态度的投资者有时被称为“债券义警”。债券义警可能会被美国飙升的债务水平和赤字，以及/或特朗普政府不负责任的地缘政治和经济政策吓到。
Here’s
John Cochrane on the specter of the bond vigilantes
:
以下是约翰·科克伦对债券义警幽灵的评论：
Unsustainable fiscal policies can only go on so long. Eventually bond investors decide that the US will not in the end do the right thing after trying everything else, and default, expropriation, taxation, capital controls, or sharp inflation is on its way. They stop buying long-term bonds especially, and look to the comfort of short term bonds…For some reason there is limited demand for long-term treasury debt…
不可持续的财政政策只能维持这么久。最终，债券投资者会认定，美国在尝试了所有其他办法后，最终不会做正确的事，违约、征用、征税、资本管制或急剧通胀即将到来。他们尤其会停止购买长期债券，转而寻求短期债券的安稳……出于某种原因，对长期国债的需求有限……
The beginning of a global sovereign debt retrenchment would show up first in a feeling of limited demand…Investors, seeing trouble demand a larger risk premium for longer term debt…Moving to short maturity structures is a classic symptom of trouble ahead.
全球主权债务紧缩的开始首先会表现为需求有限的感觉……投资者看到麻烦，会要求对长期债务收取更高的风险溢价……转向短期期限结构是未来麻烦的典型症状。
Among the people who were scared by the rise in interest rates, apparently, were the Trump administration. Higher long-term interest rates mean higher mortgage rates,
1
which make American voters mad. They also make it harder for the U.S. government to finance its enormous deficits. So Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government was intervening in the bond market, with a program to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. This pushed up bond prices — and pushed down interest rates — for exactly one day, but then
the bond markets bounced right back
:
显然，对利率上升感到害怕的人中包括特朗普政府。更高的长期利率意味着更高的抵押贷款利率，1 这让美国选民感到愤怒。它们还使美国政府更难为其巨额赤字融资。因此，财政部长斯科特·贝森特宣布政府正在干预债券市场，推出购买长期美国国债的计划。这推高了债券价格——并压低了利率——但仅仅维持了一天，随后债券市场立即反弹：
US Treasuries fell a day after the Trump administration’s surprise decision to increase buybacks of longer-dated bonds…
The
30-year yield
on Thursday rose over seven basis points to as much as 5.27%, where it was just ahead of the US Treasury Department’s announcement early Wednesday.
美国国债在特朗普政府出人意料地决定增加长期债券回购后一天下跌……
周四30年期国债收益率上升超过7个基点，最高达到5.27%，而就在周三早些时候美国财政部宣布之前，收益率还在该水平附近。
So are we watching the collapse of confidence in the U.S. government? Is this the beginning of bankruptcy for Uncle Sam? Probably not yet. The underlying trends of excessive borrowing and boneheaded policies do bear keeping an eye on, and collapses of investor confidence can happen fast once they begin. But it’s unlikely that a true sovereign debt crisis has begun.
那么，我们正在目睹对美国政府的信心崩溃吗？这是山姆大叔破产的开始吗？可能还不是。过度借贷和愚蠢政策的潜在趋势确实值得关注，而且投资者信心的崩溃一旦开始就会很快发生。但真正的国家债务危机不太可能已经开始。
How much are interest rates actually up by?
利率实际上升了多少？
One reason I’m not terrified by the rise in long-term rates is that it’s not actually that big of a rise!
我不对长期利率上升感到恐惧的一个原因是，实际上升幅度并没有那么大！
In stories about rising rates, you see a lot of charts about how it’s a global phenomenon:
在关于利率上升的报道中，你会看到很多图表显示这是一种全球现象：
Source:
Bloomberg
来源：彭博社
This has interesting implications, but first, notice that except for Japan, most of the rise was actually in 2021-2023. So whatever happened to make bond investors demand higher rates, most of it happened years ago.
这有一些有趣的含义，但首先，请注意，除日本外，大部分上升实际上发生在2021-2023年。因此，无论是什么导致债券投资者要求更高利率，大部分都发生在几年前。
Here’s just the U.S., zoomed out to cover the last decade:
这里仅看美国，将时间范围拉长到过去十年：
Long-term rates fell in 2019 and bottomed out during the pandemic, then in 2022 and 2023 they had a big sustained rise. In comparison, the rise since early 2026 has been very small — only a few tenths of a percent.
长期利率在2019年下降，并在疫情期间触底，然后在2022年和2023年出现了大幅持续上升。相比之下，自2026年初以来的上升幅度非常小——只有零点几个百分点。
That
could
be the beginning of a catastrophic rise, and of course when you’re carrying as much debt as the U.S. government is, even a small increase in borrowing costs can be a headache if it’s sustained over a long period of time. But I just can’t look at that little wiggle in 2026 and see evidence of a bond market collapse. You should be very worried about the U.S. national debt, but this rise in rates should only make you a tiny bit more worried, if at all.
那可能是灾难性上升的开始，当然，当你像美国政府那样背负着如此多的债务时，即使借贷成本的小幅上升，如果持续很长时间，也会令人头疼。但我实在无法从2026年那个小小的波动中看出债券市场崩溃的证据。你应该非常担心美国的国家债务，但这次利率上升最多只会让你稍微更担心一点，如果有的话。
So what is behind the (small) rise in long-term rates? There are three basic possibilities.
那么，长期利率（小幅）上升的背后是什么？有三种基本可能性。
Is it inflation?
是通胀吗？
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