【文章标题】：Dirty Secrets: Eight SMIDs 【文章标题】：肮脏的秘密：八只中小盘股
【文章正文】： Last year, I published
Trade Ideas for 2025
. The best idea (PL) has returned 539%. The worst (LULU) is down 49%. Some trades worked until they didn’t (TSSI) and others rose from ashes (FLNC). A simple average of the equity trades comes out to 76% return, the median return is 29%.
去年，我发布了
2025年交易想法
。最佳想法（PL）已回报539%。最差（LULU）下跌49%。有些交易在失效之前一直有效（TSSI），另一些则绝地反弹（FLNC）。股票交易的简单平均回报率为76%，中位数回报率为29%。
Of course, every idea list has hits and misses. But without transparent accounting, it’s easy to blur the lines. In reality, whether any of these trades actually worked is a question of entry, exit, and allocation. Absent clear communication and fair ledger, there is no credible way to
assess
value — and as a reader it is harder to
extract
value.
当然，每个想法清单都有命中与失误。但如果没有透明的账目，界限就容易模糊。实际上，这些交易是否真的有效，取决于入场、出场和仓位分配。缺乏清晰的沟通和公平的账本，就没有可信的方法来
评估
价值——而作为读者，也更难
提取
价值。
Now, I have a solution: a transparent, real time, live model portfolio
(Details below).
现在，我有一个解决方案：一个透明、实时的模拟投资组合
（详情见下文）。
Introducing TLBS Model Portfolios
介绍TLBS模拟投资组合
There is no shortage of smart folks talking about Google or NVIDIA and I’m not sure how much value I have to add. Instead, I’ve found that I have better luck uncovering lesser known ideas — especially ones that go against the grain.
谈论谷歌或英伟达的聪明人不计其数，我不确定自己能增加多少价值。相反，我发现自己在发掘不太知名的想法方面更有运气——尤其是那些逆势而行的想法。
Rather than a permabear, The Last Bear Standing is contrarian at heart.
与其说是一个永久看空者，The Last Bear Standing 本质上是一个逆向投资者。
That can mean fading market darlings or finding diamonds in the rough. It could be the collapse of Chinese property developers or the rebound of the Hang Seng index.
这可能意味着回避市场宠儿，或发掘璞玉。它可能是中国房地产开发商崩盘，也可能是恒生指数反弹。
Today, I’ve written up eight small and mid-size (SMID) stocks that will be the start of a dynamic TLBS Contrarian SMID model portfolio.
今天，我写了八只中小盘（SMID）股票，这将是一个动态的TLBS逆向中小盘模拟投资组合的开端。
Here’s my selection process.
以下是我的筛选过程。
Criteria:
筛选标准：
I like off-beat companies that are on the cusp of inflection — either in fundamental performance or market sentiment. My timeframe is neither the next quarter nor 2050 — I’m looking for concrete developments that I expect to be realized (or recognized) within the next 1-2 years. These companies have largely idiosyncratic business drivers rather than hinging on macroeconomic trends. Given this horizon, the equity positions
should not
be expressed through weekly calls, even if some short-term bets might be sprinkled into the portfolio as opportunities arise.
我喜欢处于拐点边缘的非主流公司——无论是基本面表现还是市场情绪。我的时间框架既不是下个季度，也不是2050年——我在寻找预计未来1-2年内能够实现（或被认可）的具体进展。这些公司的业务驱动力大多具有特殊性，而非依赖宏观经济趋势。鉴于这一时间跨度，股票头寸
不应
通过每周期权来表达，即使随着机会出现，一些短期押注可能会撒入投资组合中。
Fundamentals:
基本面：
For better or worse, my analysis considers financial fundamentals, including both current valuation metrics and a reasonably underwritten medium-term outlook. On capital structure, I appreciate a “margin of safety”, but I’m also intrigued by leverage when it’s opportunistic and asymmetric, particularly in a positive turnaround story.
无论好坏，我的分析都会考虑财务基本面，包括当前估值指标和合理审慎的中期展望。在资本结构方面，我欣赏“安全边际”，但当杠杆具有机会性和不对称性时，我也对其感兴趣，尤其是在积极扭亏为盈的故事中。
Technical:
技术面：
I like stocks that are showing reversals after long periods of one-way price action (i.e. coming out of multi-year troughs or coming off extreme peaks). My favorite sentiment is a stale consensus.
我喜欢那些在长期单向价格走势后出现反转的股票（例如走出多年低谷或脱离极端高点）。我最喜欢的情绪是过时的共识。
Allocation:
仓位配置：
Four core longs will anchor the portfolio with the balance split among four smaller allocations with shorter-term considerations. The portfolio is concentrated in fairly small and illiquid names, which prioritizes total return over volatility.
四个核心多头将锚定投资组合，其余部分则分配给四个较小的、考虑较短期的仓位。该投资组合集中于相当小且流动性不佳的标的，优先考虑总回报而非波动性。
…
……
This model portfolio shouldn’t be taken as “investment advice” but rather a quantifiable ledger. At a minimum, it should provide a transparent expression of my evolving convictions, which I hope will provide significantly more clarity and value to the reader.
这个模拟投资组合不应被视为“投资建议”，而应被视为一个可量化的账本。至少，它应该提供我不断演变观点的透明表达，我希望这能为读者提供更清晰的认知和更大的价值。
This portfolio will be dynamic. My intention is to introduce any new positions with relatively detailed posts outlining the idea. Any update to the portfolio will come with a note to readers explaining the rationale.
这个投资组合将是动态的。我打算用相对详细的帖子介绍任何新仓位，概述其逻辑。对投资组合的任何更新都会附带一篇给读者的说明，解释理由。
Without further ado…
闲话少说……
What stock do you secretly like but are too ashamed to tell anyone?
你私下里喜欢但羞于告诉任何人的股票是什么？
Here is mine…
这是我的……
Read more
阅读更多