【文章标题】：Run It Hot, Yet Again
【文章标题】：再次让经济过热运转
Hi nice people, this is Alf.
大家好，我是Alf。
Sorry I disappeared from Substack for a good while but markets are crazy, the fund is growing nicely and it’s a huge amount of work.
抱歉我从Substack消失了好一阵子，但市场太疯狂了，基金在稳步增长，工作量极其庞大。
But no worries - I am back with a healthy dose of macro analysis for you.
但别担心——我回来了，带着满满一剂宏观分析献给大家。
As an exception to the norm and to gain back brownie points with you guys, I am sharing the latest research piece reserved to the investors and The Macro Compass subscribers.
作为一次破例，也为了在各位这里挽回一些好感分，我将分享这份原本仅限投资者和The Macro Compass订阅用户阅读的最新研究报告。
Here it goes!
以下就是正文！
Forward-looking indicators suggest the US nominal growth cycle is picking up pace again. The inflation-adjusted primary US fiscal spending is higher than in 2024-2025 at this point of the year:
前瞻性指标显示，美国名义增长周期正在重新提速。经通胀调整后的美国初级财政支出，在今年这个时点已高于2024-2025年同期水平：
Global real-economy money printing is also growing at a strong pace, similar to 2025.
全球实体经济层面的货币印发量也在强劲增长，与2025年的态势相似。
As a reminder, inflationary money is printed by governments (deficits) and via credit creation (banks, shadow banks etc). Concerted G20 fiscal deficits and the debt-funded AI capex cycle are the main contributors to the strong pace of global money printing in 2026:
提醒一下，通胀性货币来源于政府印钞（赤字）以及信用创造（银行、影子银行等）。G20国家协同性的财政赤字，加上债务融资驱动的AI资本开支周期，是2026年全球货币印发强劲增长的主要推手：
Leading indicators also suggest the US labor market has found a bottom.
领先指标同样显示，美国劳动力市场已经触底。
The NY Fed probability of finding a job in the next 3 months (orange) has stabilized and the weekly ADP job creation series (blue) has moved from -50k in June 2025 to +42k today.
纽约联储测算的未来3个月内找到工作的概率（橙色线）已趋于稳定，而每周ADP新增就业数据（蓝色线）已从2025年6月的-5万回升至当前的+4.2万。
As a reminder, with the US labor force growth (e.g. supply side of labor market) estimated to be close to zero it doesn’t take much demand for labor to kickstart a virtuous cycle in the US job market:
提醒一下，鉴于美国劳动力增长（即劳动力市场的供给端）估计接近于零，只需要很少的劳动力需求就能启动美国就业市场的良性循环：
A virtuous cycle in the US job market won’t necessarily mean runaway inflation, at least in the short term. While a tighter job market will heat up wages, the starting point for US wage growth is very modest:
美国就业市场的良性循环并不必然意味着通胀失控，至少在短期内如此。虽然趋紧的就业市场会使工资升温，但美国工资增长的起点非常温和：
The Fed’s dual mandate of a) not letting the job market fall apart and b) core inflation below 3% (yes, sorry, not going to pretend the Fed has a 2% target anymore) would now call for a different reaction function.
美联储的双重使命——a）不让就业市场崩溃，b）核心通胀低于3%（是的，抱歉，我不打算再假装美联储还有2%的目标了）——如今将要求一种不同的反应函数。
”Would” is the key word here.
“将”（Would）这个词是关键。
The December Fed meeting is now priced at a robust probability the Fed will hike. Yet to hike rates, the FOMC needs a majority of voters to lean in.
当前市场定价显示，12月美联储会议加息概率很高。但要真正加息，FOMC需要多数投票者倾向于加息。
There are 12 voters, and a 6-6 situation gives the FOMC Chair the power to break the tie.
FOMC共有12位投票委员，而6比6的局面下，FOMC主席拥有打破平局的投票权。
And the new FOMC Chair was recently talking about shrinking the balance sheet as a cover to cut rates and moving the inflation benchmark from core PCE to trimmed mean PCE (you guessed it, trimmed mean PCE is lower than core PCE)…it’s safe to say Warsh would rather eat his hat than raise rates.
而新任FOMC主席最近在谈论以缩表作为降息的掩护，并将通胀基准从核心PCE切换为截尾均值PCE（你猜对了，截尾均值PCE低于核心PCE）……可以肯定地说，Warsh宁愿吞帽自尽也不会加息。
In other words, you’d need 7 FOMC members voting for a hike to actually get a hike.
换句话说，需要7位FOMC成员投票支持加息，才能真正实现加息。
Even assuming the 3 dissenters against the dovish language in May would outright vote for a hike, and Barr would join them (quite some assumptions already!), you need 4 more votes for a hike coming out of this group: Warsh, Williams, Powell, Cook, Bowman, Waller, Paulson, Jefferson.
即使假设5月对鸽派措辞投反对票的3位委员直接投票支持加息，且Barr也加入他们（这已经是相当大胆的假设了！），你还需要从以下群体中再拿到4张加息票：Warsh、Williams、Powell、Cook、Bowman、Waller、Paulson、Jefferson。
Yes, the BoE-zation of the FOMC is upon us. But I don’t think the FOMC will have a majority ready to hike any time soon.
是的，FOMC的”英国央行化”正在到来。但我认为FOMC短期内不会出现准备加息的多数派。
Now, let’s assume my analysis holds. We would then find ourselves in the following situation:
现在，让我们假设我的分析成立。那么我们将会处于以下局面：
US money printing is accelerating, and global money printing remains strong;
美国货币印发正在加速，全球货币印发保持强劲；
Nominal growth is likely to pick up;
名义增长可能会回升；
The US labor market seems to have found a bottom, and might accelerate soon;
美国劳动力市场似乎已经触底，并可能很快加速；
On the margin, this would add to inflationary pressures (but no runaway inflation dynamics yet);
在边际上，这将增加通胀压力（但尚未出现失控的通胀动态）；
The standard reaction function from the Fed should be to move to hikes (and the market asking for it);
美联储的标准反应函数应该是转向加息（而市场也在要求加息）；
The Fed is unlikely to have a majority actually voting for hikes any time soon;
美联储短期内不太可能出现多数派真正投票支持加息；
So the title of the movie might be: Run It Hot, Yet Again
所以这部电影的片名可能是：再次让经济过热运转
In that macro setup, my 40-year backtest shows the best trades to own are:
在这种宏观格局下，我40年的回测显示最值得持有的交易是：
High-beta equities (small cap, EM, value tilt)
高贝塔股票（小盘股、新兴市场、价值风格）
High-beta commodities (silver, copper, but also gold)
高贝塔大宗商品（白银、铜，还有黄金）
Long cyclical and high-yielding FX, short defensive tilt FX (e.g. ZARJPY)
做多周期性和高收益货币，做空防御性货币（如ZARJPY）
Curve steepeners, short long bonds
收益率曲线陡峭化交易，做空长端债券
I was recently in London meeting 3 large macro pod shops, and when presenting this thesis the biggest pushback or complete lack of interest sits with a) gold b) small cap, value, EM equities.
我最近在伦敦拜访了3家大型宏观对冲基金，在展示这一论点时，最大的反对声或完全缺乏兴趣的领域是：a）黄金，b）小盘股、价值股、新兴市场股票。
And that’s either a function of the AI dominance in equities recently or the ”it’s going nowhere” factor in precious metals such as gold and silver.
这要么是近期AI在股市中占据主导地位所致，要么是黄金和白银等贵金属”毫无起色”的因素所致。
Option market positioning shows the same lack of interest towards gold upside. For the first time in many many years, 25-delta gold calls are trading at a discount to 25-delta gold puts. Investors are more interested in protecting against another drop in gold rather than buying gold upside:
期权市场的持仓情况也显示出对黄金上行同样的冷淡态度。多年来首次，25-delta黄金看涨期权以低于25-delta黄金看跌期权的价格交易。投资者更感兴趣的是防范黄金再次下跌，而非买入黄金的上行空间：
Yes, I know: Hormuz. All the above is irrelevant if you think we escalate the war or there is no fix for months.
是的，我知道：霍尔木兹海峡。如果你认为战事会升级，或者几个月内都无法解决，那么以上所有分析都不重要。
But if we unlock energy flows, we will Run It Hot. And the market is not fully prepared for it.
但如果我们能打通能源流通，我们就会让经济过热运转。而市场对此并未做好充分准备。
Thanks for reading!
感谢阅读！
To be in touch with me: alf@palinurocapital.com
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