This is Ottawa apartment living at its fine est. At least it was supposed to be 1357Baseline Road was supposed to be a two tower, 402 unit retirement residents when ground was first broken four years ago.
这是渥太华公寓生活的极致。至少它本该如此。1357 Baseline Road 原本应该是一个两栋塔楼、402个单元的养老住宅，四年前破土动工。
And you can ask for much better spot here in the capital of Canada. The property walks right up to a Walmart and a mutual Britto is within walking distance of plenty of parks and Green space, including Ottawa experimental farm.
在加拿大首都，你很难找到比这更好的位置。该物业紧邻一家沃尔玛，而且步行即可到达 Mutual Britto 以及大量公园和绿地，包括渥太华实验农场。
Yes, the city has a farm in the middle of it for some reason. And most importantly, it’s a straight shot to bingo land for those looking to get low crazy with their Tuesday nights for an industry defined by the Montreal location, location, location memo couldn’t ask for much better, but in terms of timing, timing, timing, you couldn’t ask for much worse.
是的，出于某种原因，这座城市中间有一个农场。最重要的是，对于那些想在周二晚上疯狂玩宾果的人来说，这里直通宾果乐园。对于一个由“地段、地段、地段”定义的行业来说，位置不能要求更好了，但就时机而言，你不能要求更糟了。
Construction on this property began in 2022, near the exact peek of Canada’s housing market, which has gone on to experience one of the most severe contractions among developed countries, with code developer of this property filing for creditor protection mere months after kicking things off.
该物业的建设始于2022年，接近加拿大房地产市场的顶峰，此后加拿大经历了发达国家中最严重的收缩之一，该物业的联合开发商在开工仅几个月后就申请了债权人保护。
Now there are plans to turn this concrete skeleton into an apartment building, I’m guessing, an open concept, but the other code developer is struggling to secure financing to finish the job, which is a common issue that’s plaguing ing one of the hardest hit segments in Canada’s real estate market, condos.
现在有计划将这个混凝土骨架改造成一栋公寓楼，我猜是开放式概念，但另一位联合开发商正在努力获得融资来完成这项工作，这是困扰加拿大房地产市场受打击最严重的部分之一——公寓——的常见问题。
Now this technically isn’t condo, the difference being ownership versus renting. And this, again, was supposed to be a retirement residents in area that experienced its own recognize during the pandemic, but nonetheless is a good visual representation of the state of the market.
严格来说，这不是公寓，区别在于所有权与租赁。而且，这本来应该是一个养老住宅，位于一个在疫情期间经历了自身某种变化的地区，但无论如何，它很好地直观反映了市场状况。
Plus, I needed groceries after this. Conn. O. Developers across Canada, major cities have been cancelling projects and filing for creditor protection as demand for tiny glass and concrete boxes has shockingly dried up and individual investors have all but disappeared from the space.
另外，这之后我还需要买杂货。加拿大的公寓开发商在各大城市一直在取消项目并申请债权人保护，因为对微小玻璃和混凝土盒子的需求已经令人震惊地枯竭，个人投资者几乎从这个领域消失了。
But it brings us to the awkward question, isn’t this a good thing? Canada has a reputation as one of the least affordable housing markets in the world. So then why is the government stepping in in British Columbia to buy unsold Conomo ims and the developers struggling so much? Why are these people camping overnight to buy a new home? What’s going on? Our condo developer struggling or not? Why do so many do suck? Did did Carney do this? Why is this one so tall? Who are the experimenting on here? And why did Trump do this? Is anyone free Tuesday evening? And most important of all, what happens from here? Well, those are just some of the questions will be tackling in today, especial episode of the plane vehicle.
但这引出了一个尴尬的问题：这不是好事吗？加拿大以世界上最不可负担的住房市场之一而闻名。那么，为什么政府在不列颠哥伦比亚省介入购买未售出的公寓，而开发商却如此挣扎？为什么这些人通宵露营购买新房？发生了什么？我们的公寓开发商是否在挣扎？为什么这么多公寓这么糟糕？是卡尼干的吗？为什么这个这么高？他们在这里实验什么？为什么特朗普要这么做？有人周二晚上有空吗？最重要的是，接下来会发生什么？好吧，这些只是我们今天这期特别节目《飞机车辆》要解决的一些问题。
Hello, and welcome to the bags Bacheller. Please make yourself at home. There are some full low tears in the corner and get comfortable because this gets pretty rough.
你好，欢迎来到《袋子单身汉》。请随意。角落里有几碗低泪麦片，请舒服点，因为接下来会相当艰难。
Canada has long higher reputation for having a seemingly unstoppable real estate market. The country was densely populated around just a handful cities have the strongest population growth among the G7 seven countries, and things to restrictive regulations and zone requirements. Supply just couldn’t keep up, with prices rising 55% from March of 20 2020 to the peak in March of 2022 alone.
加拿大长期以来以看似不可阻挡的房地产市场而闻名。该国人口密集地集中在少数几个城市，在七国集团中拥有最强劲的人口增长，而且由于限制性法规和分区要求，供应根本跟不上，仅从2020年3月到2022年3月的峰值，价格就上涨了55%。
But over the last several years, things have been on the decline. Residential sales activity has flat line and under 500000 homes a year, and inventory in the country country has begun decline, with the sales in new listings ratio, a measure of the balance between supply and demand down from nearly 90% and 20 2020 12 around 50%, with unsold inventories across Canada, seven major centres, metropolitain areas reaching all time highs.
但在过去几年里，情况一直在下降。住宅销售活动已经持平，每年低于50万套，全国库存开始下降，销售与新挂牌比率（衡量供需平衡的指标）从2020-2022年的近90%下降到50%左右，加拿大七个主要大都市中心的未售库存达到历史新高。
Allibert screams a housing correction for the country, with national index having dropped a fifth since its peak in 2022.
所有这些都表明该国正在经历住房调整，全国指数自2022年峰值以来已下跌五分之一。
But throw it out at a map of the country and chances are you’ll land some working in a different tune. Because the country’s housing prices is actually quite concentrated. Most provinces have actually seen real estate prices rise, with Newfoundland, Saskatoon having actually experienced strong growth since the peak, and over the itself doing fairly well. In fact, there only two provinces that have experienced a decline since 2022, Ontario in British Columbia, which happened to be the country’s two most expensive markets.
但如果你往全国地图上扔飞镖，你很可能会落到一个情况不同的地方。因为该国的房价实际上相当集中。大多数省份的房地产价格实际上有所上涨，纽芬兰、萨斯卡通自峰值以来实际上经历了强劲增长，其他地区也表现不错。事实上，自2022年以来只有两个省份经历了下跌：安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省，它们恰好是该国最昂贵的两个市场。
So the correction today has been viewed by many as more a provincial problem than a Canada wide issue, especially when you consider condo buildings, which mostly exist in large cities and have been one of the hardest hit areas, with some blaming most of this in Toronto and Vancouver, where 24 and 32.5% of dwellings, respectively, are condominium, which appears to the 15% country average.
因此，今天的调整被许多人视为更多是省级问题，而不是全加拿大范围的问题，尤其是当你考虑到公寓建筑时，它们大多存在于大城市，并且是受打击最严重的领域之一，一些人将大部分责任归咎于多伦多和温哥华，这两个城市分别有24%和32.5%的住宅是公寓，而全国平均水平为15%。
But here’s the rub. These two provinces are also where most Canadians live in the regions around these cities, the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver, areas which many of the states in this video will focus on a long account for a quarter of the country’s population.
但问题在于，这两个省份也是大多数加拿大人居住的地方，在这些城市周围的地区，即大多伦多和大温哥华地区，本视频中的许多数据将重点关注这些地区，它们合计占全国人口的四分之一。
Not to mention that as financial hubs of the country, instability here has still had impacts on lending practices elsewhere in the country that is largely tiny, up their criteria for leading mortgage.
更不用说，作为该国的金融中心，这里的不稳定仍然对全国其他地方的贷款实践产生了影响，这些地方大多收紧了抵押贷款标准。
So like your Uncle Jerry, who likes to debate politics at thanksgiving dinner, it’s all been enough to ruin the party for everyone else.
所以，就像你那个喜欢在感恩节晚餐上辩论政治的杰瑞叔叔一样，这一切足以毁掉其他人的聚会。
So what’s driving this decline? Well, the current sell off in condos and real seat as a whole, for that matter, has been more an issue of demand than supply, at least in terms of what’s changed in the short term, with several key factors contributing, which will touch on before jumping into the dumpster fire around condo specifically.
那么，是什么推动了这种下降？嗯，当前公寓以及整个房地产的抛售，更多是需求问题而非供应问题，至少在短期变化方面是这样，有几个关键因素在起作用，我们将在深入探讨公寓这个烂摊子之前先触及这些因素。
But the first key driver of this decline has been the country’s one 80 on the population growth. In 2025, Canada’s population dropped on an annual basis for the first time ever since the country’s confederation in 1867, with over 100000 people live in the country. In the last quarter of 2025 alone, the largest query decline on record, but the population decline itself was only 0.2%, which is actually less than some other G7 countries.
但这一下降的第一个关键驱动因素是该国在人口增长上的180度大转弯。2025年，加拿大人口自1867年联邦成立以来首次出现年度下降，有超过10万人离开该国。仅2025年最后一个季度，就出现了有记录以来最大的季度下降，但人口下降本身仅为0.2%，实际上低于其他一些七国集团国家。
But the remarkable here is that just two years earlier, the country had its largest population increase since 1957, three at 3.2%, the highest rate among 77 countries. The girl spirit being tied to the country’s immigration.
但值得注意的是，就在两年前，该国还经历了自1957年以来最大的人口增长，增长率达3.2%，是七国集团中最高的。这一增长突增与该国的移民政策有关。
So why are people live in Canada? Well, despite common perception is not trumps tariff s leave losing streak or Timna introduction of Lyra pizza is understandable, as those reasons may be, this decline in population has actually been intentional since been elected Prime Minister, Marcy and this liberal government have been drastically cutting down how many people Canada will be allowing into its borders with the big focus been on reducing non permanent residents, or people who are only in the country temporarily to study, work or seek asylum to under 5% of the population, which is already resulted in the number of non permanent residents dropping 15.8% from the final quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2026 to the the reason for this change actually be Canada’s housing crisis.
那么，为什么人们要离开加拿大？嗯，尽管普遍看法并非特朗普的关税、枫叶队的连败或 Tim Hortons 推出 Lyra 披萨，这些理由可以理解，但人口下降实际上是有意为之。自从马克·卡尼当选总理以来，这个自由党政府一直在大幅削减加拿大允许进入其边境的人数，重点是将非永久居民（即仅在该国临时学习、工作或寻求庇护的人）减少到人口的5%以下，这已经导致非永久居民人数从2024年最后一个季度到2025年第二季度下降了15.8%。这一变化的原因实际上是加拿大的住房危机。
But here’s the thing. The vast majority of non permanent residents ended up settling in Canada’s large urban centres to work at the companies, access the multicultural communities and trying to straight. So all these markets have historically been the biggest beneficiaries of high immigration. We’ve also been the ones suffer the most from the change in policy, and with no permanent residents represented in point 2% of the population, the results are likely to come.
但问题是，绝大多数非永久居民最终定居在加拿大的大城市中心，以便在公司工作、接触多元文化社区并努力安顿下来。因此，这些市场历来是高移民的最大受益者。它们也是受政策变化影响最大的地区，而且由于非永久居民占人口的2%，结果可能会随之而来。
The population alone doesn’t explain why these regions have been so hard hit. In other key factor has been interest rates. Canada’s decline in home prices started exactly when the bank of Canada began aggressively hiking rates to combat pandemic era inflation and move that resulted in mgt ate spiking and homes becoming even more affordable.
仅凭人口并不能解释为什么这些地区受到如此严重的打击。另一个关键因素是利率。加拿大房价的下跌恰好始于加拿大央行开始大幅加息以对抗疫情时期通胀的时候，这一举措导致抵押贷款利率飙升，住房变得更加难以负担。
And you can see in the following index insert in the rates of in 20 to let the mortgage payments as a percentage of median income topping out at 63%, even as the home place to income ratio was falling and all the index has since fallen, as rates in home prices have come down and incomes have risen by, the homes still remains more unaffordable. Then it was prepare the mic.
你可以在下面的指数中看到，在2022年，抵押贷款支付占中位收入的比例最高达到63%，即使房价收入比在下降。尽管此后该指数随着利率和房价下降以及收入上升而下降，但住房仍然比疫情前更难以负担。
And the thing is, this hasn’t just impacted new home buyers because unlike in the U. S, most mortgage in Canada only let you lock in your rates for up to ten years, with the majority only having a fixed rate for for parts, after which your mortgage has to be renewed to reflect market rates, which has put a lot of rain on people who bought in these expensive markets, borrow a lunch money and dirt cheap interest rates, and are now seen their rates surge.
而且，这不仅影响了新购房者，因为与美国不同，加拿大大多数抵押贷款只允许你将利率锁定最多十年，大多数只有五年固定利率，之后抵押贷款必须续签以反映市场利率，这给那些在昂贵市场买房、以极低利率借了大量资金、现在看到利率飙升的人带来了巨大压力。
Now, so far, this hasn’t really translated into default Lingen’s y rates hrsa m, but they remain below preponderated c levels. And between condos and attached properties, Ordos are actually more affordable and they’re non connected parts.
到目前为止，这还没有真正转化为违约率和拖欠率的大幅上升，但它们仍低于疫情前水平。在公寓和联排物业之间，公寓实际上比非公寓物业更便宜。
But after their peak, cities like Vancouver and Toronto saw the tiny boxes selling for prices well above the cost of non connected parties in other markets, with benchmark prices reaching above in the egg, eat the parks and and have been quite common to see small units selling in the seven figure range.
但在峰值之后，温哥华和多伦多等城市的小盒子售价远高于其他市场非公寓物业的成本，基准价格达到八位数，小户型售价达到七位数的情况相当常见。
And well, that has since become less common. Even today, a representative condo still requires a household income in the mid hundred thousand dollar range to afford. So even with the cell of affordability has still been an issue for demand for there’s one additional factor contributing to the pull we’ve seen in the first first lof of 2020 country in the the experience, its second consecutive contraction in GDP, something the edge among us would call a recession and the population contraction in the country struggling with years of productivity stagnation and tramps ify the living begets out of the country.
而且，这种情况已经变得不那么常见了。即使在今天，一套典型公寓仍然需要家庭收入在十几万加元的中等水平才能负担得起。因此，即使出现了抛售，负担能力仍然是需求的一个问题。还有一个额外因素导致了我们在2025年上半年看到的下跌：该国经历了连续第二个季度的GDP收缩，我们当中最激进的人会称之为衰退，加上人口收缩，该国多年来生产力停滞，以及特朗普的关税把整个国家吓得魂飞魄散。
Confidence about Canada as economy has been low, which can make investors and even homebuyers thinking about about thinking living session into a glass cube in the middle of base street.
对加拿大经济的信心一直很低，这可能让投资者甚至购房者在考虑是否要在贝街中段租住一个玻璃立方体时三思而后行。
As the reports deeply downgrading td forecasts for the market put it, housing remains constrained by a subdue economy, hinted uncertainty and ongoing cost of living pressures.
正如一份大幅下调道明银行市场预测的报告所说，住房仍然受到经济低迷、不确定性加剧和持续生活成本压力的制约。
So it’s easy to see why realization in the country and not been doing well and that the be be or has impacted all categories of housing. Bacon to s哦啊Yeah not going well。
所以很容易看出为什么该国的房地产表现不佳，而且加拿大央行已经影响了所有类别的住房。回到正题，情况并不顺利。
Condo sales and Toronto have fallen over 90% from their peak, while sales in Vancouver by jush shy of two thirds, which has brought sales in both cities to multi decade lows. Just a few years after Peking, all of it just contributed to a flood of units hitting the market without any buyers with unsold inventories are completion for condemnation, the majority of which are located in Toronto. And Vancouver have been increased roughly 4.5 times since 2022.
多伦多的公寓销售量从峰值下降了90%以上，而温哥华的销售量下降了近三分之二，这使两个城市的销售量降至数十年来的低点。在达到峰值仅仅几年后，这一切导致大量单元涌入市场却无人购买，未售出的完工公寓库存（其中大部分位于多伦多和温哥华）自2022年以来增加了约4.5倍。
But I can make bunch of sarky comments about condos being tiny, unlivable and about as aesthetically joyful as the 182Blade Runner. But I’m trying to be impartial here, so I’ll just let other people do it for me once. Survey from 2024 found that 79% of respondents believe most of Toronto’s condo units were constructed with subpar materials, with 93% believe in Toronto needs better quality convenience, with only 8% strongly agreed that Toronto’s condo buildings exhibit unique designs and personalities.
但我可以对公寓又小、不宜居、美学上大约和1982年