Endangered Specious
濒危的谬种
“I’m a nut case, but that is what I believe.”
– Mike Tyson
“我是个疯子，但那就是我的信念。”
——迈克·泰森
In the heady days between US President Donald Trump’s reelection and his second inauguration, headlines frothed with brouhaha over his cabinet nominations. While many nominees landed under the media microscope for reasons fair and foul, one person sailed through the confirmation process with ease: current Secretary of Energy Christopher Wright, the most qualified member to have ever occupied their appointed seat. (The basis for our ringing endorsement can be found in our aptly titled article from November of 2024, “
In Praise of Chris Wright
.”)
在唐纳德·特朗普总统再次当选至第二次就职之间的令人兴奋的日子里，媒体头条因他的内阁提名而闹得沸沸扬扬。尽管许多提名人因各种正当或不正当的理由被媒体放大审视，但有一个人却轻松通过了确认程序：现任能源部长克里斯托弗·赖特，他是史上最有资格担任该职位的人。（我们大力支持他的依据，可见于我们2024年11月那篇标题恰如其分的文章《
赞美克里斯·赖特
》。）
Beyond the lasting impact of Wright’s policies, the wisdom of Trump’s choice has been made clear during the various energy emergencies provoked by the chaotic first 20 months of the 47th presidency. While we suspect he grimaced at the way former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was snatched from office, Wright has nonetheless quietly led a surprisingly swift revitalization of that country’s all-important oil industry, no doubt leveraging his formidable industry connections for the task.
除了赖特政策的持久影响之外，特朗普这一选择的明智之处，在第四十七任总统任期内混乱的头20个月所引发的各种能源紧急状况中已经显露无遗。尽管我们怀疑他对委内瑞拉前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗被赶下台的方式感到不悦，但赖特仍然低调地带领该国至关重要的石油工业实现了惊人而迅速的复兴，毫无疑问，他为此动用了自己强大的行业人脉。
To be sure, there have been challenges, and the story’s ending is yet to be written—challenges that include
growing questions
about how the proceeds from a revitalized energy sector will be disbursed. But the early results are remarkable. In July, for the third straight month, Venezuelan oil exports
surpassed
1 million barrels per day, up from half that threshold as recently as December.
诚然，挑战一直存在，故事结局尚未书写——这些挑战包括
日益增多的问题
，即复兴后的能源行业收益将如何分配。但早期成果令人瞩目。7月，委内瑞拉石油出口量连续第三个月
超过
每日100万桶，而就在去年12月，这一数字还仅为该水平的一半。
Probably not on his bingo card | Getty
可能不在他的宾果卡上 | 盖蒂
A far more vexing challenge was handed to Wright with Trump’s catastrophic decision to launch a war against Iran, precipitating the largest disruption to global energy markets in a generation. Tasked with helping the administration manage the resulting oil shock, Wright—like his predecessor under President Joe Biden, former Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm—turned to the bounty of barrels buried in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
特朗普对伊朗发动战争的决定是灾难性的，给全球能源市场带来了整整一代人以来最严重的扰乱，这也给赖特带来了一项远为棘手的挑战。赖特受命帮助政府应对由此引发的石油冲击，他像乔·拜登总统任内的前任、前能源部长珍妮弗·格兰霍姆一样，转向了埋藏在美国战略石油储备（SPR）中的大量石油。
Unlike Granholm, however, Wright did not outright liquidate the nation’s insurance policy. Instead, he implemented a scaled-up version of an oil exchange program, in which molecular loans will be repaid in molecules, plus interest—also in the form of molecules. With no cash changing hands, and thus no need for congressional approval, Wright is actually
refilling
the SPR in what
amounts
to a physical calendar spread:
“
Companies borrowing the oil are required to return the original volumes, with premiums of up to 24% in the form of extra oil. The department says that system will help stabilize markets at no cost to US taxpayers. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said about 35 to 40 million barrels of extra oil will be returned this year and next in the form of premiums.
”
然而，与格兰霍姆不同，赖特并没有直接清空国家的这份“保险单”。相反，他实施了一项扩大版的石油交换计划，即借出石油，以石油偿还，再加上利息——同样以石油形式。由于没有现金易手，也就无需国会批准，赖特实际上是在
补充
SPR，这
相当于
一种实物日历价差：
“
借油的公司需要归还原有数量，并以额外石油的形式支付最高24%的溢价。能源部表示，这一系统将有助于稳定市场，且不会让美国纳税人付出代价。能源部长克里斯·赖特表示，今年和明年将以溢价形式返还约3500万至4000万桶额外石油。
”
The shrewdness and prudence of this move seems beyond the skill of a surprisingly large number of oil commentators parading as experts on social media and television. To hear it from them, not only is the SPR nearing its operational bottom, but the US economy will all but collapse once this mythical level is reached. Perversely, such a breakdown would allow this cohort’s diehard predictions to finally materialize, making it an eventuality they appear to embrace, not lament or even hope can be prevented.
这一举措的精明与审慎，似乎远远超出了数量多得惊人的、在社交媒体和电视上以专家自居的石油评论员的能力范围。听他们说来，SPR不仅正接近其运营下限，而且一旦达到这个神话般的水平，美国经济几乎将崩溃。反常的是，这种崩溃将让这一群体顽固的预测最终成为现实，而这似乎正是他们期待的结果，而非他们哀叹甚至希望避免的结局。
This is but one of many specious concepts that have reached escape velocity in the Twitterverse, each more void of logic than the next, many of them propagated by those who should know better. Alongside the SPR fear campaign sits a failed understanding of the real reasons prices at the pump are rising; a wildly misunderstood relationship between US and Canadian oil production; and a related disconnect when it comes to the capabilities and needs of the US refining colossus. Let’s dispel all four with a dose of straightforward, fact-based analysis.
这只是众多在推特宇宙中达到逃逸速度的似是而非的观点之一，一个比一个缺乏逻辑，其中许多是由那些本应更明白事理的人传播的。与SPR恐慌运动并行的，是对油价上涨真正原因的错误理解；对美国和加拿大石油生产之间关系的严重误解；以及在谈到美国炼油巨头的产能与需求时出现的相关脱节。让我们通过一番直截了当、基于事实的分析来破除这四点。
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